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The Floor and Ceiling for Each Big Ten Team in the 2025 NCAA Tournament

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Wisconsin and Michigan State are two of the best teams in the Big Ten.

As the first four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament begins, it’s time to look at each of the eight Big Ten team’s chances in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten has famously not won the National Title since 2000 with Michigan State . So the 25-plus-year drought has to end sometime right? Why not this year? Let’s take a closer look at the ceiling and floors for each of the eight teams who are dancing in March Madness .

Which team has the best chance of reaching the Final Four? Does Tom Izzo have the team finally? What about Dusty May’s suddenly red-hot Wolverines? Let’s dive in.

The Floor and Ceiling for Each Big Ten Team in the 2025 NCAA Tournament

Illinois – Six Seed in Midwest Region

The Fighting Illini are finally healthy. It might be the perfect time for Brad Underwood’s team. Illinois reached its first Elite Eight in 2024, for the first time since 2005 when they reached the National Championship Game. Is this team Final Four good? They have the talent, with the three freshmen Kasparas Jakucionis , Will Riley , and Tomislav Ivisic . Not to mention Morez Johnson Jr is officially back in the lineup after missing the last month of the season with a wrist injury.

This team will need its veterans to make it farther than the first weekend of the NCAA Tourney. The ceiling is Elite Eight, as for the floor for Illinois, Round of 32 in my opinion.

Maryland – Four Seed in West Region

This team fought like hell in their Big Ten Tournament semifinal game with Michigan. Blowing it defensively on a last-second lay-up made by the Wolverines was a killer. The “Crab Five” as the Terps starting five is so fondly referred to is elite but their bench will have to step it up. They have a star in Big Ten Freshman of the Year Derik Queen . He proved it with his 31-point performance against the Wolverines. How will he fair in his first and likely only NCAA Tourney run? Maryland can make the case they have the best starting five of all the Big Ten teams in the Big Dance. The ceiling for this team is the Final Four. The floor is the Sweet 16.

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Michigan – Five Seed in South Region

The Wolverines have new energy after winning the Big Ten Tournament. However, they feel a little slighted after being seeded fifth in the South Region. Tre Donaldson showed off some clutch playmaking as he helped lead the Wolverines to wins over Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin to win the conference tournament. Vladislav Goldin was able to earn Big Ten Tournament MVP. They will need that effort and more with UC San Diego as their opening foe in the NCAA Tournament.

Turnovers have been a problem for Michigan all season, and unfortunately, they get a Tritons team that ranks near the very top in the country in forcing turnovers. If Michigan turns it over more than 10 times, they could easily be going home after the first round. Dusty May has found a little magic lately, so the ceiling for this team is the Sweet 16. But their floor is bowing out in the Round of 64.

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Michigan State – Two Seed in South Region

Losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten semifinals doesn’t hurt at all. The Big Ten regular season Champions are right where they want to be. Tom Izzo’s success as a two-seed is pretty strong. Only one time were the Spartans bounced by a 15, in the 2016 NCAA tourney by Middle Tennessee. Every other time they’ve been a two, they have reached the Final Four. Jase Richardson has become ‘the guy’ for this team. The depth and the team’s ability to rebound are only going to help get this team going. Not to mention the shooting is coming around. The Spartans feel like the Big Ten’s best chance to cut the nets down. The ceiling for MSU is the Final Four. The Floor is the Sweet 16 to me. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

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Oregon – Five Seed in East Region

A big year for the Ducks in their first season in the Big Ten. They were able to win some big games en route to grabbing a five-seed in the East region. It was an interesting season, to say the least. They had some ups and downs, especially against some of the other teams from the Big Ten that also made the NCAA Tourney. Nate Bittle has turned into the top dog for this team. Jackson Stelstad has a March Madness legend in the making written all over him. Can he deliver? We will see. Liberty isn’t the easiest of draws, especially with the commonality of a 12-seed upsetting a five. The Ducks’ ceiling is the Sweet 16, in my opinion, but their floor could just as easily be the Round of 64.

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Purdue – Four Seed in Midwest Region

Last year’s National Runner-Up hasn’t had its best season this year. Finishing sixth in the Big Ten was a step back. However, Braden Smith showcased his all-around ability this season. He was rewarded with Big Ten Player of the Year and first-team All-American honors from the Associated Press. He’s got a great running mate in Trey Kaufman-Renn . But where the heck has Fletcher Loyer been? It’s like he’s completely disappeared.

Sorry to say I don’t like the direction the Boilermakers are trending coming into the NCAA tournament. High Point appears to be a huge pick to upset Purdue in the first round. Though if Purdue plays to their best ability, I think the ceiling is the Elite Eight. The floor is the third first-round exit in the last five seasons.

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UCLA – Seven Seed in Midwest Region

The lowest-seeded Big Ten team will need to be firing on all cylinders for coach Mick Cronin. Toughness has been a question mark for much of the season, but the Bruins have the talent to make some kind of run. Having a guy like Tyler Bilodeau who is averaging 40 percent from the three has to make them feel hopeful. Not to mention Kobe Johnson has been really strong defensively.

UCLA will have to dig deep and find some toughness, especially with the Utah State Aggies as their opening foe. The ceiling for this squad is the Round of 32, especially with Tennesse as the two-seed in their part of the bracket. The floor is losing their opening game against the Aggies.

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Wisconsin – Three Seed in East Region

Despite falling short after going ice cold against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament final. Wisconsin still has a great lineup. They are the true definition of life and die by the three. John Tonje is a superstar, but can he make the shots like he did against Michigan State in Indianapolis? This team cannot afford to go cold from three. Like the Spartans, a deep run is there for the taking.

John Blackwell proved to be a huge second option behind Tonje. The Final Four is likely the ceiling for the Badgers. As for the floor, I think the Sweet 16 is very reachable. They could even push Alabama for the Elite Eight.

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Photo credit: © Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The post The Floor and Ceiling for Each Big Ten Team in the 2025 NCAA Tournament appeared first on Last Word On Basketball .