Can Michigan pull of an upset in Bloomington? Here’s the case for and against Michigan beating Indiana.
The Michigan Wolverines will be road underdogs against the No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday, but can they play spoiler and throw a wrench into Indiana’s playoff hopes? While ESPN gives Michigan just a 13 percent chance of beating IU, here’s a look at the case for and against the Wolverines defeating the Hoosiers.
The case for Michigan beating Indiana
Indiana has had a weak schedule
Per ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) Indiana ranks No. 103 in strength of schedule. Indiana has beat up on teams such as Florida International, Western Illinois, and Charlotte to name a few. While Indiana is 9-0, only two of those wins are versus teams that currently have a winning record (5-4 Washington, 5-4 Nebraska). Indiana also ranks No. 2 in average in-game win probability, so while the schedule has been lackluster they still deserve credit for how thoroughly they’ve dominated the opposition.
Davis Warren has improved
Warren struggled earlier in the year as Michigan’s starting quarterback, throwing two touchdowns and six interceptions in the first three games. Warren was benched in favor of Alex Orji, then Orji was benched for Jack Tuttle, then Tuttle retired and Warren has been QB1 the past two games. Warren has progressed since being turnover prone in September and hasn’t turned the ball over in starts against Michigan State and Oregon. Turnover free football will at least give Michigan a chance against a talented Indiana offense and defense where there won’t be much margin for error. Further, Warren and tight end Colston Loveland have developed good chemistry, evident by Loveland’s seven catches and a career-high 112 receiving yards against Michigan State.
Michigan’s history versus Indiana
Michigan rarely loses to Indiana, just twice in the last 37 years (1987, 2020). Michigan has an all-time record of 62-10 against the Hoosiers. Indiana hasn’t been a juggernaut in football through the decades and has had just three winning seasons in the last 29 years. Indiana hasn’t even won a bowl since 1991. However, this isn’t the same ole Hoosiers, this is the first time they’ve ever been 9-0. Will history remain on Michigan’s side, or will Indiana’s improbable season continue?
Michigan isn’t bowl eligible yet
Bowl games still matter and gaining bowl eligibility is the bare minimum goal for a program like the Wolverines. The fact they aren’t bowl eligible yet and need one more win to reach that threshold of six wins could lead to playing inspired football against Indiana.
The case against Michigan beating Indiana
Curt Cignetti is the real deal
Cignetti is a boisterous coach who has elements of WWE to some of what he does and says, he knows good theater and theatrics, but he’s also a really good coach.
“It’s pretty simple. I win. Google me,” Cignetti said when he was hired.
All Cignetti has done is win everywhere he’s coached and has a career record of 128-35. Cignetti knows how to inspire his team and put winning gameplans together.
Indiana’s rushing defense is phenomenal
Indiana ranks No. 1 in rushing defense and Michigan’s biggest strength this season has been their rushing offense which ranks No. 62 compared to their No. 128 passing offense. The problem for Michigan is their rushing attack has been bottled up of late. The past two games Michigan RB Kalel Mullings has had 21 carries for just 34 yards, Donovan Edwards has had 19 carries for 76 yards. If Michigan doesn’t get it’s running game back on track it’s going to be a long day in Bloomington.
Michigan’s defense doesn’t buckle down on third down
Under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale Michigan has regressed mightily on third down, they consistently allow the opposition to sustain drives and pick up big plays via the pass. Michigan ranks No. 108 in third down defense while Indiana ranks No. 7 in third down offense.
Kurtis Rourke and Indiana’s passing offense
Rourke, a transfer from Ohio, has had a great year at IU, throwing for 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Indiana has a variety of playmakers at wideout — five receivers have over 250 yards receiving and 25 receptions. Rourke may be able to pick apart a depleted Michigan secondary that may be without both Will Johnson and Jyaire Hill. Michigan ranks No. 95 in passing yards allowed.