There are positive signs from Michigan’s start to the season, despite the loss against Wake Forest. The Wolverines now look to rebound against TCU back at home:
The Michigan Wolverines blew out Cleveland State last week, but the defeat to Wake Forest was a good reminder to stay grounded. Dusty May’s crew has shown plenty of positives and still sits as the No. 31 team per Kenpom. There will be multiple opportunities to notch some key wins during the non-conference portion of this schedule, including Friday’s bout with the TCU Horned Frogs .
The Wolverines scheduled a home-and-home with TCU for this season and next, which is a little triggering for football fans (though arguably that Fiesta Bowl loss fueled the national championship) but objectively fun for basketball fans who want to see more games against Power Five competition — especially on campus! The Frogs are 3-0 this season but have not faced any top opponents yet. This should be a fun one.
TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) at Michigan Wolverines (1-1)
Date & Time: Friday, Nov. 15, 6 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: FS1
TCU was picked 10th in a loaded Big XII, which is right around the bubble line in way-too-early Bracketology. No. 53 on Kenpom, the Frogs are a balanced team on both sides of the ball. Center Ernest Udeh is the key returner and is averaging 8.0 points and 9.3 rebounds so far. Guards Vasean Allette and transfer Noah Reynolds join Frankie Collins, who is now at TCU after two years at Arizona State. Collins averaged 13.8 PPG last season and gets to face his former team a second time after the Sun Devils’ win in Brooklyn two years ago.
The last time these teams faced was in the 1960s, but Michigan has seen some other Big XII opponents in recent seasons. Last year, the Wolverines fell to Texas Tech in Atlantis, while they came out victorious against Iowa State during their previous trip to the Bahamas. Michigan also won both legs of the home-and-home against Texas under John Beilein, back when the Longhorns were still members of the conference.
One Big Question: Is defensive rebounding an issue?
Looking at Michigan’s profile, the most glaring issue right now is defensive rebounding. Both Cleveland State and Wake Forest had a ton of success snagging their own misses and turning them into second-chance points, and the Wolverines sit near the bottom of the country in allowing 39.2 percent of those misses to be retained. It might just be two games, but this looks to be a potentially big issue.
The root cause is hard to isolate — Vlad Goldin has had a slow start to the season, the guards have not carried their weight on the glass either, and the focus on aggressive tempo has sacrificed some positioning on the boards. Michigan will need to address all of these factors, especially against a TCU team that grabs an above-average 37.1 percent of its misses. As solid as the Wolverines have been defensively, this weakness is going to cause problems this season if it is not addressed quickly.
One Thing to Watch: Getting open
Unsurprisingly, Michigan saw a big drop in offensive production from Game 1 to Game 2, and the TCU defense will provide another challenge. Jamie Dixon’s team will be disciplined in the half court, rebounding well and staying active throughout the shot clock. The Wolverines are still going to try to run in transition (where they are absolutely feasting), but as was the case Sunday, there will be plenty of possessions that require making shots against a set defense. TCU had Kenpom’s 44th-best unit on this end of the floor last year, allowing under 1.00 PPP, and have had early success this season as well.
The way to attack the defense is inside the arc, as TCU was bad against twos last season (223rd) and is trending that direction again this year (170th). Michigan will have the opportunity to cut through this defense and perhaps take advantage of over-aggression by moving the ball well and finding the open man. The scoring has been balanced to start the year, and this game will come down to shot selection. Against Wake Forest it definitely felt like there were some missed reads, so we will see if the Wolverines can capitalize on any clean looks they generate through cuts and screens.