How much from Michigan Football’s win over Fresno State actually mattered in the long run? A true mixed bag:
Given the unexpectedly great finish to 2024 and the hype of the 2025 recruiting class, optimism is high for the Michigan Wolverines heading into the new season. Many key roles will be filled by new faces, making the fanbase eager to see if this actually could be a team that contends for a spot in the College Football Playoff — a thought that was nearly unimaginable early last November.
Like 2024, this fall kicks off with a mid-major opponent at home, giving the Wolverines a (hopefully) smooth runway into the season. Because of this level of competition, only so much can be gleaned from Game 1, though reactions are sure to come in from everywhere. This contest will be just as much about the eye test as it will be the final score, especially with the potential start of Bryce Underwood against New Mexico.
How seriously should we take those reactions? At least part of that question can be answered by looking back at last year’s opener against Fresno State. Not everything that played out in Week 1 remained true against Ohio State and Alabama, but there were definitely signs that remained consistent throughout the year. A quick look back at what that game meant (and did not mean) over the course of 2024.
Hard-nosed studs
Perhaps it is appropriate to start with Dominic Zvada, who went 3-for-3 against Fresno State with bombs of 45, 53 and 55 yards. The transfer kicker was elite all season, and this early showing was no mirage. The defensive line also played fairly well, holding the Bulldogs to 0.4 yards per carry when including sacks; while there were some ups and downs across the year, the line was still the strength of this team.
The other standout was Kalel Mullings, who racked up 92 yards on 15 carries, with much of that coming in the fourth quarter. Donovan Edwards had the hype following the National Championship Game (and video game cover), but Mullings was the better runner on the evening and proved to be the more productive threat throughout the season.
Lack-of-skill positions
Edwards himself unfortunately falls in the other category. He amassed just 27 yards on 11 carries as the de facto RB1, and though he did bring in a receiving touchdown, his overall impact was quite limited last fall. This trend from 2023 did continue through his senior season, as the electric playmaker found the end zone just four more times and was firmly supplemented by Mullings.
The biggest question mark heading into the game (and season) was at quarterback. Davis Warren took nearly all the snaps against Fresno State but was unable to do much with them, throwing for just 4.7 yards per attempt and under-throwing a deep ball that resulted in an interception. The warning signs from this game were too much to ignore and he would get benched two weeks later (though got the job back, of course). Any hope for strong quarterback play should have died after Week 1.
Surprises all around
All of that being said, there were some things that did change throughout the year. Speaking of quarterbacks, Alex Orji rushed five times for 6.4 yards per carry and even threw (!) a touchdown against Fresno State. However, he never really became a rushing threat, and his passing was poor when he was given the chance. Only twice did he top six carries in a game, making his impact much less than had been hoped last summer.
Both Colston Loveland (eight receptions, 87 yards, touchdown) and Will Johnson (pick-six) had some big moments in Week 1, with each projected to have huge final seasons in Ann Arbor. Sadly, neither quite lived up to the hype. Loveland was arguably the biggest victim of the quarterback struggles, then missed the two best games of the year. Johnson only played in five games and, despite his previous body of work, fell to the second round.
On a positive note, the secondary was fairly inconsistent against Mikey Keene, but rebounded by the end of the year. The journey to that point included plenty of frustrations and failures, but the Wolverines’ defense in the opener was not the same unit that closed out the season. Much of that is due to Wink Martindale’s acclimation into the program, which is a good reminder to have patience with Chip Lindsey against New Mexico.
In sum, the efforts of Mullings and Zvada were legitimate, and despite the mixed performance of the defense, there was good reason to believe it would eventually come together. Warren and Edwards each had question marks coming in, so their struggles should not have been ignored. Hope in Orji and the young secondary was mostly just hope, but there was a path for them to succeed — sometimes, it just does not play out that way.
So what should that mean on the morning of Aug. 31 following New Mexico? Summer expectations should remain the baseline, but do not discount flashes from a rotation running back or an incoming transfer. If doubts around the offensive line (or brand new quarterback…) do continue, though, there is reason to pump the brakes.