After Monday’s eyesore, Michigan Basketball could use a clean win. Rutgers’ visit to Ann Arbor tonight provides the opportunity…in theory:
A win is a win. Following their ugliest victory in some time, the Michigan Wolverines can exhale after narrowly escaping Nebraska, but questions still linger about how good this team actually is. A negative point differential over the past 10 games — despite eight wins — paints a concerning picture for March, but Michigan has four regular-season contests remaining to reverse this troubling trend.
The simplest of these upcoming games is undoubtedly at home against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights . No game in the Big Ten is ever truly easy, but with an 80 percent-plus win probability, the Wolverines absolutely must take care of business in this one to keep their Big Ten title hopes alive. Rutgers has some impressive NBA prospects, but the expectation is for Michigan to secure its first double-digit win since mid-January.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (14-14, 7-10) at No. 15 Michigan Wolverines (21-6, 13-3)
Date & Time: Thursday, Feb. 27, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: Peacock
Rutgers has had an underwhelming season and is likely heading toward a Wednesday Big Ten Tournament entrance. After losing to Michigan earlier this month, the Knights managed to defeat Illinois but then went on a three-game losing streak before posting back-to-back wins over Washington and USC. KenPom ranks them in the 70s nationally, with their offense outpacing their defense.
However, the first meeting in Piscataway was a challenging offensive performance for the home team, logging just 0.91 PPP. The absence of Dylan Harper certainly played a role in that, and the star freshman comes into this one with a combined 59 points in his last two games. Despite the loss, Rutgers put up a respectable defensive effort and may have a bit of optimism after watching Michigan flounder on Monday night.
One Big Question: Will there be double the trouble?
While Michigan has generally been solid defensively, individual star power has shown the ability to break through. Freshman phenom Ace Bailey was contained in the first meeting, but players like Brice Williams, Jase Richardson, Jeremiah Fears, and Boogie Fland single-handedly put a lot of pressure on Dusty May’s squad. With both Harper and Bailey healthy and gearing up for this one, Michigan cannot afford to be caught off guard.
These future pros can shoot from deep and are fearless when attacking the rim. Despite Nebraska’s abysmal shooting performance, Michigan’s perimeter defense has been inconsistent, and giving these shooters space could be disastrous. It will likely be Harper and Bailey carrying much of the offensive load with Michigan holding the advantage in the frontcourt, but Williams showed that can be a competitive strategy.
One Thing to Watch: Identity crisis
In the first win over Rutgers, Michigan posted its worst turnover rate (24.8 percent) of the month. However, it also recorded its best eFG rate (55.4 percent) during this stretch in that game. These two facets of the 2024-25 Wolverines are likely to determine how far this team will go in March, but their inconsistency leads to a wide range of possible outcomes, making it difficult to evaluate the squad’s true potential.
I believe these factors are connected, with much of the outcome hinging on solid mental play. If Michigan can get the ball into the paint and finish at the rim, good things are likely to happen. Turnovers are the primary obstacle to executing this plan, but Rutgers does not have the type of defense that a) forces a lot of turnovers or b) demands intricate passing to break it down. The Wolverines have the tools to comfortably beat this type of opponent, but that is easier said than done, as their inconsistency has been a season-long issue. Now is the time for Michigan to lock in and deliver on its potential.