Ahead of Michigan’s rematch with Purdue tonight, we chatted with @joejacksonCBB on what the Wolverines need to do to pull off the upset:
Since Jan. 19, the Michigan men’s basketball team has won five of six games, with those five victories all being by four points or less. The one game in that stretch without a close scoring margin was a blowout loss to the Big Ten-leading Purdue Boilermakers .
Michigan has done solid in Quad 1 wins this season (5-3), but a victory over this uber-talented Purdue team at Crisler tonight would help its Big Ten title chances and NCAA Tournament resume significantly.
To get some insight on how Michigan can avoid another blowout loss, I spoke Joe Jackson, who covers Purdue hoops and Big Ten basketball on his Feed the Post Substack . If you’re a Big Ten basketball junkie like myself, I highly recommend giving Joe a follow and subscribing to his Substack and YouTube channel .
Below is our Q&A.
Kellen Voss: Since beating Michigan, Purdue has won three games in a row and has won 11 of its last 12. What makes this Purdue team so consistent?
Joe Jackson: I think having two of arguably the 3-5 best players in the conference in Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn (TKR) gives Purdue such a baseline from game to game. In my opinion, there isn’t a better point guard in the country than Braden Smith, and maybe only 2-3 better players. Having Braden and TKR just allows Purdue to manufacture points from a game-to-game standpoint that makes it really difficult for everyone to have a bad game on Purdue.
KV: As it has all season long, Michigan struggled with turnovers in the first matchup against Purdue. Michigan turning the ball over 22 times speaks to both the team’s lapses on offense and Purdue’s solid defense, which ranks 32nd on KenPom. Do you think Purdue will have the same defensive strategy for this one, or change things up?
JJ: I would expect Purdue to run a lot of the same things. They will pick up the ball full court to try and slow down Michigan’s up tempo offense. In the half court, Purdue will pressure the ball and try to force teams baseline where their help will be able to be set up. One thing that really stood out in their first matchup is how physical Purdue was guarding both Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. Caleb Furst is one of the few players with both the length and speed to try and disrupt Danny Wolf, but the physicality all of the Purdue bigs had really seemed to make life tough on Wolf and Goldin.
KV: Michigan was unable to slow down Braden Smith in the first matchup, with the favorite for Big Ten Player of the Year pouring in 24 points. Is there any recipe for slowing him down, or is he always going to get his points regardless?
JJ: I think at this point with Braden, you can either turn him into a passer or a scorer, and even then there is a good chance he gets both. If you turn him into the scorer, he is so good at this point that defenses just have to hope that he misses jumpers, especially against Goldin in drop coverage. If Michigan switches or tries to high hedge, that’s when at times Braden can turn more into a bit of a passer. At that point, it comes down to whether the “others” can knock down open jumpers. He’s also so good at getting the ball to TKR on the short roll that it makes it tough to take it all away.
KV: An issue Michigan has run into recently is a lack of depth, with the bench getting shorter as Big Ten play carries on. On the flip side, do you feel confident about Purdue’s depth, and is that a reason it leads the conference?
JJ: I think the depth for Purdue has started to come around, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a strength. Freshmen CJ Cox and Gicarri Harris have really been good lately, and probably the fifth and sixth best players on the team. Purdue doesn’t have much big man depth though. Camden Heide has been fine at the 4 off the bench, but it also changes Purdue a bit by going smaller. Raleigh Burgess has had small flashes, but he is more still just developing as a freshman.
KV: Speaking of the conference, Michigan is not far behind Purdue in the standings. If any team were to overtake Purdue in the standings, would you say Michigan is the favorite, or is another team?
JJ: Michigan would probably be my pick to overtake Purdue just given Michigan State has a really tough schedule. I think four losses in the Big Ten wins it outright, and five losses could potentially get a share. Given both UCLA and Wisconsin not having the toughest schedules, I think they could sneak in, but a lot of breaks would have to go their way for that to happen.