The 2024-25 college football season comes to a close this evening, but who will be taking the torch from Michigan as the next national champion? Here’s our preview and prediction for tonight’s title game:
Well, we’ve finally reached the finish line for the 2024-25 college football season, where a new national champion will be crowned in tonight’s title game. The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has been nothing short of spectacular, and it all comes down to a matchup between Notre Dame and Ohio State .
Earlier in the season, it would have been fair to question the merit of either of these squads. The Irish suffered an early loss to Northern Illinois as nearly 30-point favorites, while Ohio State blundered against an unimpressive Michigan team in late November. However, both teams turned it on down the stretch and have done enough to get to this position.
Ohio State enters this matchup as an 8.5-point favorite. The Buckeyes have completely flipped the switch since their loss to Michigan, using their pass attack to score 111 points through their first three playoff games.
The star of the show has been true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who has become a household name in these playoffs thanks in part to his 187-yard outing against Oregon. He was slowed by Texas, limited to just one reception for three yards, but Ohio State still found success against the Longhorns thanks to Carnell Tate, Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.
Notre Dame’s defense is one of the nation’s elite units and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Irish limit Ohio State’s offense a bit. Notre Dame’s secondary is among the nation’s best with safeties Adon Shuler and Xavier Watts leading the way. Even without cornerback Benjamin Morrison for much of the year, Notre Dame has limited opposing passing attacks to just 165.3 yards per game, good for third nationally.
Smith was slowed against Texas thanks to a heavy rate of zone coverage and the Longhorns opting to double and triple cover him. Notre Dame has tended to play more man-to-man this year, so it’ll be up to Leonard Moore to lock Smith down, although that’s been nearly impossible so far.
Flipping to the run game, Notre Dame’s defense isn’t as strong in this category (No. 33 unit nationally). Penn State had plenty of success on the ground with 204 yards, and Ohio State’s run game is even stronger with Judkins and Henderson. It’ll be up to guys like Jack Kiser, Jaylen Snead and Drayk Bown to limit the damage.
The X-factor in this game will be Notre Dame’s offense and, more specifically, quarterback Riley Leonard. The Irish boast one of the nation’s most efficient rush attacks, but will they be able to rely on that for four quarters against a defensive front as strong as Ohio State’s? Texas wasn’t able to find consistent success, and the Longhorns were ultimately unable to get over the hump through the air. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Notre Dame faced a similar challenge.
Notre Dame is near the bottom of the barrel nationally in passing with just 194.3 yards per game, but Leonard is coming off a solid 223-yard game against Penn State. It’ll be tough to repeat that performance against an even stronger secondary, but Leonard also has the ability to make an impact with his legs and challenge the linebackers of Ohio State, which is arguably the weakest link of the Buckeye defense.
As for what should happen in the game, it’ll be tough for Ohio State to attack vertically like it did against Tennessee and Oregon, leading to a need for longer sustained drives throughout the game. This should limit Ohio State’s pace and ultimately its scoring, but Notre Dame is going to have to score as well to have a chance at the upset.
If there’s a team equipped to follow the same script as Michigan, it’s Notre Dame. A team that’s predicated on its ground game for sustained drives on offense, while its defense can limit the damage, keeping the game close. Fortunately for Notre Dame, its offense is much better and efficient than Michigan’s, and I believe running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price can be relied on to carry the load and produce a big play or two.
I think Notre Dame’s defense can limit Ohio State’s offense, but that might mean limiting the Buckeyes to something in the range of 24-30 points. Can Notre Dame score that much against Ohio State’s defense? Additionally, can it do this if its playing from behind and needs to throw the ball?
I don’t believe so. Ultimately, Notre Dame can keep this close, but won’t have enough firepower to win.
Final Prediction: Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 16