The first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff is upon us, and we should have a weekend of intriguing on-campus matchups. So how will these games go down and who’s going to advance to the quarterfinals? We predict the games here:
This weekend should provide us with an incredible set of games in the first round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. There’s plenty of intrigue and storylines to go around, but how will the games play out?
Today, we’ll be taking a brief look at each game on the weekend schedule and predicting the final scores for the first round.
Indiana @ Notre Dame (-7)
Friday, Dec. 20, 8 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Personally, I think this is the most intriguing of the first-round matchups. These teams are both ranked inside the top-three nationally in points scored per game, but their defenses also come to play, as both are ranked in the top-six nationally in points allowed per game.
Notre Dame is going to want to pound the rock with Jeremiyah Love, who’s quietly been one of the best running backs in college football this year. However, I bet you wouldn’t have guessed Indiana is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the nation at just 76.2. This is a strength on strength matchup, but I’d give a slight edge to the Irish thanks to their offensive line that’s also been one of the nation’s best.
On the flip side, Indiana struggled mightily when it faced Ohio State ’s and Michigan’s defensive fronts, and Notre Dame’s is really good, too. I think the pressure generated will prevent Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers from finding success in the air and force them to be one-dimensional. This could be close at the start, but ultimately Notre Dame pulls away.
Prediction: Notre Dame wins 34-17
SMU @ Penn State (-8.5)
Saturday, Dec. 21, Noon, TNT/Max
This one is another matchup of strength on strength between SMU’s offense and Penn State’s defense. Where things get interesting is on the other side of the ball. Penn State showed against Oregon it can put points on the board, 37 of them to be exact. So can the Nittany Lions replicate that and keep pace if SMU’s offense is able to find success?
SMU’s defense is a bit one-dimensional — it’s elite against the run, ranking No. 7 nationally in yards per game, but dismal against the pass, ranking No. 95 nationally. Penn State showed against Oregon it can score points and move the ball through the air, but undoubtedly it’ll still want to run the ball, especially in the freezing cold conditions. If it runs into a wall, it can exploit the porous Mustang secondary.
I think Tyler Warren is the X-factor. Penn State is going to have to turn to its passing attack in some form, and Warren has been the best tight end in college football this year. He made a handful of big plays against Oregon, and he’ll be relied on to do the same in this game. Penn State’s offense will struggle early, but adjust and get the job done. It’ll be closer than expected, but Penn State wins it.
Prediction: Penn State wins 27-21
Clemson @ Texas (-12)
Saturday, Dec. 21, 4 p.m., TNT/Max
I’ll be honest, Texas is kind of hard to figure out at this point of the year. The Longhorns have had one of the best defenses in the country, but the offense is very hit or miss. Quinn Ewers hasn’t been playing his best ball as of late and Texas is averaging just 27.7 points per game over its last six games. Texas is still extremely physical on both sides of the ball and a force to be reckoned with, but it doesn’t look like the squad that dominated Michigan in Ann Arbor.
Fortunately for Texas, it gets a favorable matchup against Clemson. The Tigers won an exciting ACC Championship against SMU, but have struggled at times to put points on the board, which doesn’t bode well against a stout defense. Clemson is particularly middling running the ball at No. 49 nationally in yards per game, which could force it to be one-dimensional against Texas, particularly if it’s playing from behind. However, Texas also boasts the No. 1 passing defense in the country by yards per game.
Furthermore, Clemson is no longer the defensive powerhouse it was in the late 2010s. It sounds funny to say, but could this be a “get right” game for the Texas offense in the playoff? Well, if you like to bet, I’d still take the under in this one, but Texas should still win comfortably.
Prediction: Texas wins, 30-13
Tennessee @ Ohio State (-7.5)
Saturday, Dec. 21, 8 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Columbus should be a snake pit on Saturday night, but whether that’s a good or bad thing for Ohio State is yet to be seen. The Buckeyes are coming off one of the worst losses in their recent history, and easily the worst of Ryan Day’s tenure. How will they bounce back?
Well, if you like defense, this is the game for you as both teams rank inside the top-four nationally in points allowed per game. Both teams are particularly stout against the run, which should make it hard for either run game to have success. Tennessee’s pass defense is a bit weaker than Ohio State’s in coverage and in pressuring the quarterback, but is still solid.
On offense, Nico Iamaleava is the most important player in this game in my opinion. He’s looked like the star he was billed to be at times this season, but has also had some let down spots like in the loss to Arkansas. He has a talented group of receivers to throw t, and you can bet the Vols will need him to make a big play or two to win the game. Dylan Sampson was also the SEC’s best running back this year, so he’ll be relied on to take some pressure off his quarterback.
As for Ohio State, it can’t be content with trying to lean on Tennessee like it tried to against Michigan. It simply won’t work. Prior to its game against Michigan, Will Howard had been playing good football, and the last time I checked, Jeremiah Smith is still a big play threat. Ohio State’s passing attack is going to have to go to work, but the makeshift offensive line is going to need to protect Howard as well. I believe Ohio State is gonna have enough in the tank to get the job done.