The Michigan men’s team is about one-third of the way through conference play. With 13 games left against Big Ten teams, let’s take a stab at predicting how many of those games Michigan will win:
The Michigan men’s basketball team is off to a solid 6-1 start in conference play and is one buzzer-beater shy of being tied for the lead. The 14-4 Wolverines struggled by their standards last week, but much like the concept of time or taxes, the Big Ten schedule waits for no one.
As Dylan Burkhardt pointed out earlier this week , of the 13 games left on Michigan’s regular season schedule, 10 are currently Quad 1 matchups. This means that through one-third of Big Ten play, Michigan has plenty of opportunities to improve or damage its resume.
With a little more than six weeks left before the Big Ten Tournament, let’s take a stab at predicting Michigan’s remaining 13 games.
Jan. 24 at No. 11 Purdue: Loss
I think it’s crucial for Michigan to split its games against Purdue and Michigan State, two of the top teams in the conference. Michigan will be at a rest advantage in this one, with Purdue losing Ohio State last night. That said, Mackey Arena is a tough place to play and Purdue always plays well there.
Braden Smith is one of the best guards in the country, and Trey Kaufman-Renn is the type of tweener forward at 6-foot-9 and 230 pounds that could give Michigan matchup problems like Washington’s Great Osobor did. I think Michigan drops a tight one on Friday.
Jan. 27 vs Penn State: Win
Penn State upset Purdue earlier this year, but the Nittany Lions haven’t been very good in conference play, losing four games in a row from Jan. 5 to Jan. 15. With Michigan returning home, I think the Wolverines bounce back and extend its home winning streak to 10.
Feb. 1 at Rutgers: Win
While Steve Pikiell has two potential top-five NBA picks in Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, Rutgers is on the outside looking in when it comes to the tournament picture and has struggled to formulate chemistry all season. While Jersey Mike’s Arena in Piscataway can get loud, KenPom projects Michigan to win by seven, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it wins by double-digits.
Feb. 5 vs No. 15 Oregon: Win
Oregon is at a schedule disadvantage in this one, having to make the trip to Michigan three days after facing a frisky Nebraska team. Nate Bittle and Supreme Cook could match-up well with Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, but I think Michigan wins a tight one at home.
Feb. 8 at Indiana: Win
Indiana recently picked up a much-needed overtime win against Ohio State, but Hoosier nation wanted Mike Woodson’s head on a platter after a four-day stretch where Indiana lost to Iowa and Illinois by a combined 50 points. Malik Reneau and Mackenzie Mgbako could give Michigan problems, but I think Goldin dominates struggling big man Oumar Ballo in this one. Michigan wins this game by two possessions.
Feb. 11 vs No. 11 Purdue: Win
I think Michigan gets revenge on Purdue in a tight win at home, earning a fifth win in a row and raising its national profile throughout this winning streak.
Feb. 16 at Ohio State: Loss
The rivalry isn’t nearly as nasty on the hardwood than it is on the football field, but I think Michigan gets upset here. While Ohio State doesn’t have a lot of size, I think Jake Diebler is a good coach and the Schottenstein Center is an underrated tough place to play. With the Buckeyes already having eight losses, this may be their Super Bowl, and I think Michigan slips on the road.
Feb. 21 vs No. 8 Michigan State: Win
This is one of the most anticipated matchups of the season, as these games against Michigan State have massive Big Ten implications on top of the high stakes this rivalry brings. Michigan State is riding the high of an 11-game winning streak and can match Michigan’s quick pace. I think Michigan wins a tight one, though, as the role players tend to play better at home, and I’m not sure MSU can shut down Goldin and Wolf.
Feb. 24 at Nebraska: Loss
Like the Ohio State loss, I think this is an upset loss that Michigan suffers. Nebraska is struggling at the moment on a four-game losing streak, but the Cornhuskers have quality wins against UCLA and Creighton. Plus, Nebraska will have two days of rest advantage, and that’s a long road trip for the Wolverines. I think Nebraska wins another close game.
Feb. 27 vs Rutgers: Win
This is the bounce-back win Michigan will need after winning two of the last three (if I’m right with these predictions). I think Michigan dominates at home and wins by more than a dozen.
March 2 vs No. 17 Illinois: Loss
I think this will be the first home loss of the Dusty May era. Illinois goes into this game with two games of rest advantage. Additionally, Kasparas Jakucionis has been one of the best players in the Big Ten, and Illinois has the size to match Goldin and Wolf thanks to Croatian 7-footer Tomislav Ivisic.
March 5 vs Maryland: Win
This week is the toughest on Michigan’s schedule at the most important time of the year, but I think Michigan wins on Senior Day. Maryland is a really good team and could be a tough out in the tournament if the Terps make it in, but I think Michigan picks up a home win thanks to being better offensively.
March 9 at No. 8 Michigan State: Loss
This is Tom Izzo in March. Michigan State tends to play its best basketball to close the regular season, and when you combine this with being Senior Day at the Breslin Center, I think Michigan closes the regular season with a loss.
Final Record: 22-9 overall, 14-6 in the Big Ten
A 14-6 record in the conference would be very impressive in May’s first year. Depending on how the Big Ten Tournament goes, I think Michigan is seeded somewhere between a 4-seed and a 7-seed in March Madness with this resume.