Michigan basketball needs to find its groove again and will look to do so against Penn State. Here is our game preview for tonight’s game between the Wolverines and Nittany Lions:
Outright panic is still unwarranted — especially when remembering how bad last season was — but it is safe to say there are legitimate questions for the Michigan Wolverines . Two subpar performances against bottom-half teams, followed by an absolute shellacking on Friday night, have brought the hype around this team back down to earth. While a blemish-free season was never realistic, now is the time for Michigan to respond.
The Penn State Nittany Lions are another team near the bottom of the Big Ten, which theoretically gives Michigan a great chance to bounce back, especially at home. However, relying on that assumption feels risky given the Wolverines’ recent efforts. A 6-2 conference record still has them in a solid position, but dropping more winnable games could quickly change the outlook. There is no choice but to win, and ideally, convincingly.
Penn State Nittany Lions (13-7, 3-6) at Michigan Wolverines (14-5, 6-2)
Date & Time: Monday, Jan. 27, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: BTN
The Nittany Lions have lost five of their last six games, though four of those defeats were by six points or fewer. Injuries played a significant role during that stretch, but most key contributors are now back, aside from Puff Johnson. The season’s highlight remains a December win over Purdue at home. Despite the record, Mike Rhoades has Penn State inside the KenPom top-50 and on track to make the cutoff for the conference tournament.
Recent history favors Penn State, winners in three of the last four meetings. Two years ago, the teams split their series, with each home team securing the win, including a 22-point rout in Happy Valley. Last season, the Wolverines blew a 10-point halftime lead at The Palestra; Penn State later ended its season (mercifully?) on the opening night of the Big Ten Tournament.
One Big Question: Is the offense gone?
The Dusty May offense generated plenty of buzz earlier in the season with impressive stats and detailed Twitter breakdowns, but the Wolverines have recently struggled to create anything easy. As expected, the Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin duo has been the focal point of every opponent’s defensive game plan, and so far, Michigan has not been able to adjust effectively.
This matchup against a Penn State defense ranked 16th in conference play in eFG percentage offers an opportunity for the Wolverines to rediscover their offensive rhythm. However, one place the Nittany Lions excel is forcing turnovers (third in the Big Ten, 21st nationally). The Wolverines were crushed by Purdue for a lot of reasons, but it is not like high turnover numbers were any sort of anomaly. There will be plenty of ways to score Monday, but they must be alert to a defense that will be hunting steals from the opening tip.
One Thing to Watch: The dangers of a track meet
This game features the Big Ten’s second- and third-fastest offenses. Penn State will look to capitalize on Michigan’s turnovers to fuel its transition game, much like in the upset over Purdue. The Nittany Lions are not a heavy three-point shooting team, so expect them to attack the rim with pace, seeking easy baskets in transition. As well as May’s group plays on the run, showing a little extra caution in this one feels wise given the risk going the other way.
For Michigan, the key will be limiting turnovers and forcing Penn State to play in the half court. The Nittany Lions are an average shooting team, with leading scorer Ace Baldwin known more for his ability to finish than for a polished jump shot. Penn State also struggles on the boards, which could hinder its ability to generate second-chance points. If the Wolverines play disciplined defense and control the tempo, they should win this one. However, if turnovers fuel Penn State’s transition game, Michigan could find themselves in another frustrating battle.