Michigan Basketball is hanging on near the top of the Big Ten, but the schedule ramps up starting tonight with Oregon:
Halfway through the Big Ten season, the Michigan Wolverines find themselves among the top three in the standings, but their performances have dipped since the start of the new year. Wins are wins, but to maintain pace over the next 10 games will require improvements on both ends of the floor, especially as the competition ramps up; Michigan has faced just the 16th-toughest strength of schedule in conference play.
Three of the Wolverines’ eight Big Ten wins have come against former Pac-12 teams, and Wednesday provides an opportunity to complete the sweep. The Oregon Ducks have looked formidable at times but are now reeling from three straight losses (and four in their last five games). With the game being played in Ann Arbor and Oregon struggling, Michigan must take advantage and hang on near the top of the standings.
Oregon Ducks (16-6, 5-6) at No. 24 Michigan Wolverines (16-5, 8-2)
Date & Time: Wednesday, Feb. 5, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: BTN
Oregon started the season 9-0 and later reached 15-2, securing impressive wins over Alabama and Texas A&M while briefly earning a top-10 ranking. However, losses to Minnesota (how embarrassing!!), UCLA, and Nebraska (at home) have derailed the Ducks, who now find themselves barely inside the KenPom top 40. Their early-season resume remains strong, but it is fair to say Dana Altman’s squad has struggled in its new conference.
Despite their fresh arrival to the Big Ten, the Ducks are quite familiar with Michigan. They won both sides of a covid-elongated home-and-home, including last year’s frustrating barn burner in Eugene. Previously, they eliminated Michigan in the 2017 Sweet Sixteen, though the Wolverines did claim a win in the 2014 Legends Classic. That makes Wednesday’s matchup the fifth meeting between these programs in 11 years.
One Big Question: How will Oregon score?
The Ducks have had plenty of defensive struggles during their slump, but it is hard to ignore how the offense has really fallen off. Their three-point shooting sits at 32.8 percent with relatively high volume, and they have alternated between turnover and offensive rebounding issues on most nights. Meanwhile, Michigan’s defense has shown recent signs of improvement, including a lockdown performance against Rutgers which held the Scarlet Knights to their lowest PPP tally in a month.
Oregon has three players averaging between 10 and 13 points per game, but none are true standouts. Point guard Jackson Shelstad and center Nate Bittle both shoot inside and out, as the offense relies on ball movement to generate quality looks. Michigan may dare the Ducks to take jumpers and see if they can convert. Given the Wolverines’ defensive improvements in recent games, I think there is reason to believe Oregon will have trouble scoring.
One Thing to Watch: Quality competition
While Michigan has clearly underperformed lately, its road wins at USC and UCLA were not that long ago. The Purdue debacle tempers optimism, but it is fair to say that a game against (even a slumping) Oregon is going to engage the roster a little more than one against Northwestern, Penn State, or Rutgers. With the next four games being against Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan State, Wednesday represents the start of the next pivotal stretch.
This rise in competition could lead to two key changes. First, Dusty May may emphasize ball security — giving up possessions to quality opponents can be fatal and puts a ton of pressure on the possessions that do actually end in a shot. Second, key contributors must step up. Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin need to continue exploiting mismatches, but given Oregon’s struggles defending the three in Big Ten play, expect Tre Donaldson and Nimari Burnett to be aggressive from deep. Hopefully the name on the jersey inspires some elevated play despite the opponent’s actual drop in form.