Michigan basketball suffered its first poor defeat of the season. Bouncing back against Northwestern on Sunday is a must:
The Michigan Wolverines were bound to slip up at some point, but few would have predicted it to be against the worst team in the conference. Now, Dusty May must rally his squad and prevent one loss from turning into two. With a 5-1 record and some tough road games out of the way, Michigan is still in a strong position in the Big Ten, but Thursday’s loss served as a reality check that raises some serious questions.
Back home on Sunday, the Wolverines must find a way to respond against the Northwestern Wildcats . This is another team near the conference’s cellar, and it could be the perfect opportunity for Michigan to show that the upset in Minneapolis was a fluke. Struggle again, though — even in a victory — and any talk of a Big Ten title will quickly fade. This is where May can prove he is not his predecessor.
Northwestern Wildcats (11-6, 2-4) at No. 20 Michigan Wolverines (13-4, 5-1)
Date & Time: Sunday, Jan. 19, 2 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: BTN
Northwestern is just 2-4 in conference play, but those two wins came over teams in the KenPom top 25: Illinois and Maryland (both in overtime). This team is not expected to compete at the top of the Big Ten, and may even miss the conference tournament, but losses to teams like Purdue and Michigan State are understandable. Metrics put the Wildcats around 50th nationally and they clearly have the ability to pull off an upset.
The Wildcats won by 14 in Evanston last February, outscoring Michigan 31-18 over the final 15 minutes. That victory marked Northwestern’s first win in the past eight (!!) meetings between these two teams. The prior occurrence was back in 2018, but the Wolverines followed that up with five straight wins to close out the regular season, winning the Big Ten Tournament, and reaching the Final Four…so basically the opposite of last year.
One Big Question: Is this team deep enough?
Michigan did not lose on Thursday solely because of offensive struggles, and in many ways, the performance was just fine. However, an off night from Nimari Burnett, an inefficient outing from Vlad Goldin, and a combined five points from Roddy Gayle and Rubin Jones proved too damaging when added together. The Wolverines have some bright stars, but the team will run into issues if multiple rotation pieces struggle, as the rotation just is not that deep.
Northwestern has a top-30 defensive efficiency, and while it has not been quite as effective in conference play, strong efforts against Illinois and Maryland, two solid offenses, should be a cause for concern. The Wildcats may not be elite in any one specific area, but they boast an active defense that does not give up easy looks…and they can force turnovers, which is obviously an ongoing red flag. This is another team with a slow tempo, meaning Michigan will need to stay patient and get everyone involved.
One Thing to Watch: Know the plan
Northwestern is dead last in three-point percentage (27.1) in conference play and is fine avoiding the long ball. Instead, the Wildcats are more than happy to attack the rim, as much of their production against Maryland came from inside (similar to Minnesota’s performance against Michigan). The Wolverines have shown solid interior defense for most of the season, but players like Brooks Barnhizer and Nick Martinelli can generate plenty of offense.
Since Michigan does not force many turnovers and can struggle on the defensive glass, forcing tough shots is its best chance at success. After Minnesota posted 1.20 PPP, there may be some questions to address on this end of the floor. Five of the Wolverines’ six Big Ten opponents have topped 1.00 PPP, and their defense is trending toward league-average in conference play. The stingy eFG rate (46.5) is beneficial, but May’s group has had to rely on denying good shot quality. Michigan must force Barnhizer and Martinelli into tough looks and hope they do not fall at an abnormal rate.