Michigan gets another shot at Purdue tonight with a chance to secure a marquee victory. Here is our game preview:
Just five times have the Michigan Wolverines lost a game this season, with four of those defeats coming by a combined eight points. The other? Well, that one was not quite as close when the clock hit double zeros in West Lafayette. Now, two and a half weeks later, Michigan gets a shot at revenge against the now-No. 7 Purdue Boilermakers in what could be a monumental win.
The Wolverines are all but locked into the NCAA Tournament, but any lingering Big Ten title hopes likely hinge on an upset Tuesday. The good news is KenPom and Vegas do not even view this as an upset the way the polls do, and Michigan has been flawless at home this season. However, after how lopsided the first meeting was, expectations remain tempered heading into the rematch. The opportunity is there, but big wins do not come easy.
No. 7 Purdue Boilermakers (19-5, 11-2) at No. 20 Michigan Wolverines (18-5, 10-2 )
Date & Time: Tuesday, Feb. 11, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: Peacock
Since their last meeting, Michigan has played — and won — four games, while Purdue has taken the court three times, beating Indiana, Iowa, and USC. Each of those games saw the Boilermakers’ offense stay hot; while they did not quite replicate the absurd 1.43 PPP they posted against Michigan, they still exceeded 1.20 PPP in all three outings, even with two three-point shooting efforts below 25 percent. The defense was less impressive, but did enough to keep on winning.
Given how recently these teams played, there is not a ton of new ground to cover. However, it is hard not to think about Michigan’s last win over Purdue, back in 2021-22: after losing to the No. 4 Boilermakers on the road, the Wolverines pulled off the upset against a top-three Purdue team just five days later, significantly boosting their tournament resume. The stakes might not be quite as high this time, but the blueprint remains relevant.
One Big Question: What was fluky and what is real?
Just about everything went wrong for Michigan in the first matchup, with early turnovers immediately putting the team in a difficult hole. That is a risk again, as the turnovers issue is not going away. Another concern is Michigan’s three-point shooting, which was poor in the first game and has cooled off in general over the last month, with Purdue remaining strong at defending the perimeter.
Those issues are real, but the rematch may not play out exactly the same. The home crowd should provide an electric atmosphere for the maize and blue, which could even impact the officiating. Dusty May will also be more prepared for Braden Smith’s free reign and Purdue’s aggressive defense, and even minor tactical adjustments can make a big difference. Sometimes, teams simply lose the chess match, but every game is a new chance to adjust.
One Thing to Watch: Big games needed
Trey Kaufman-Renn dominated the paint in West Lafayette, scoring 15 points despite some foul trouble. Meanwhile, Danny Wolf struggled mightily, shooting 1-for-7, while Vlad Goldin looked out of sorts, taking ill-advised threes and committing turnovers. Michigan cannot win if its bigs are not up to the task, and against Purdue, that need is always accentuated.
The good news for May is that both Wolf and Goldin have rebounded well since that game. Wolf is playing his best basketball since before Christmas, while Goldin is averaging 15.7 PPG on 73.9-percent shooting over the last three outings. Purdue still ranks last in the Big Ten in two-point defense, and Michigan had some decent looks in the first game. If the Wolverines are going to win on Tuesday, their stars will need to take care of the ball and execute efficiently, likely on high volume.