Michigan’s First Round victory was far from a thing of beauty, and a Second Round contest against Texas A&M projects to be choppy as well. Our game preview for Saturday’s fight for a spot in the Sweet 16:
In some ways, it was a game that Michigan Wolverines fans have literally seen a dozen times already this season, as turnovers, a blown lead, and questionable decision making were not enough to gift UC San Diego the upset on Thursday. Instead, a Tre Donaldson triple and the presence of Vlad Goldin in the paint were enough to survive and advance to Saturday’s Second Round bout.
Up next are the Texas A&M Aggies , a defensively elite team that is known for finding unflattering ways to win games itself. The No. 17 KenPom side also got past a trendy upset pick, Yale, to set up a rematch of the 2018 Sweet 16. Michigan has the tools needed to keep its NCAA Tournament run alive, but there is much to clean up from Thursday’s win as well.
NCAA Tournament: Second Round
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (26-9) vs. No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies (23-10)
Date & Time: Saturday, March 22, 5:15 p.m. ET
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV/Streaming: CBS
Like the Wolverines, A&M started the season strong but really fell off at the end, going 2-4 to close the regular season and losing in its first SEC Tournament game. None of the losses were to pushovers, though, and one of those two wins did come against top-overall seed Auburn, who could be awaiting the winner of this one. The Aggies have a top-50 offense but the eighth-best defense, and the gap between these units feels colossal.
The stat that stands out most about A&M is its offensive rebounding, which leads the nation. While its effective field goal rate is down in the 300s, there are enough second-chance opportunities to make this a workable offense. Defensively, there is no one area that makes the Aggies so good, though teams really struggle to score on the interior or grab offensive rebounds themselves.
Backcourt tandem Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps are the biggest scoring threats, averaging 15.7 and 14.1 PPG, respectively. However, it was center Pharrel Payne who led the way against the overmatched Bulldogs, scoring 25 points and securing 10 rebounds in the First Round. Overall, this is a relatively deep team, with most contributors relying on volume over efficiency.
Offense: Nothing Easy.
Nike shockingly chose another bland slogan for every bench mobs’ warmups, but it does feel appropriate for how this season has played out for the Wolverines. Thursday’s adventures on offense certainly made nothing feel easy, as UCSD muddied up the paint and tried to disrupt any sort of rhythm, and the challenge will be even tougher against an A&M defense that is much more aggressive and physical.
Michigan will need Goldin and Danny Wolf to hold their own, though few teams have good games inside the arc against the Aggies. Instead, the opportunity seems to be from three: A&M allows even more three-point attempts than UCSD and concedes a pretty high assist rate. Moving the ball and finding the open shooter is going to be more profitable than challenging the physicality inside.
Unfortunately, it does not feel like this is a super reliable way for Michigan to play. The Wolverines have shot better than 35 percent behind the arc exactly once in January, and there have been some downright painful showings during that stretch. This is not a game that can just rely on Goldin bullying his way to the rim, and in general the team’s finishing has just not been good enough. To stay in this one, there will need to be some decent jump shooting and excellent passing.
Defense: Know the plan
The good news is A&M is going to miss a lot of shots; that has been the case nearly all season, with the 275th-best two-point shooting percentage and a three-point shooting mark ranking even lower. Free throws are no different, and the Aggies turn the ball over at an above-average clip as well. It is frankly a baffling profile to look at, yet Buzz Williams has a clear plan to make it work — which it seems to be doing.
Essentially, this team is going to throw up whatever shot it wants and find a way to get the rebound, which it does literally better than anyone in the country. This results in putbacks and free throws, so keeping the bigs on the floor is going to be a huge priority for Michigan. Defensive rebounding played a big role in the losses to State and Illinois, and this feels like a bigger red flag than UCSD’s turnover threat.
Dusty May has to come up with a solid plan for this one. Rebounding has been an issue all year, so figuring out how to best minimize A&M’s biggest strength, and clear stylistic choice, is imperative. Given the Aggies’ dreadful shooting, sagging off a bit and playing the glass might make the most sense. Positioning will be key, as Goldin, Wolf, and Will Tschetter absolutely must anticipate misses and not pick up ticky-tack fouls scrambling for rebounds that will be surprises to no one.
Scramble
Vegas and analytics see this is a near coin flip, which I suppose is a good thing for this team who knows how to win close ones. If Michigan does lose, I would expect it to be clear early on that this defense is just too difficult for an oft-stagnant offense and for the rebounding to allow just too many second-chance points. However, if the game does come down to the final few minutes yet again, I feel good about being the team with better shooters.
There is part of me that believes the Wolverines could hit some threes like we saw around New Year’s, which should be enough to stay ahead. Pace is Michigan’s friend here, as A&M is very tough in the halfcourt and will likely deploy a bunch of different looks, switch a ton, and throw in some press to really challenge this offense.
The more likely scenario is a bunch of one-and-done trips with plenty of frustration on the offensive end and the game coming down to how many points per possession A&M tallies, regardless of how many shots each one requires. All things considered, an ugly matchup might not be the worst thing for Michigan, who has struggled to play pretty basketball for a while. This looks close on paper, and given how close games have gone this year, a Sweet 16 berth is there for the taking.