The Michigan Wolverines begin their NCAA Tournament late Thursday night against popular Cinderella, UC San Diego. Our game preview for the First Round matchup in Denver:
If you were to have paused the season at the end of February and jump forward to this week, not much would seem out of place. The Michigan Wolverines were 14-3 in Big Ten play at that point, and a No. 5 seed would be a slightly disappointing, yet reasonable outcome knowing what lay ahead. In some ways, this is the correct way of looking at the season, zooming out and considering the entire resume, not feeling the micro ups and downs each game.
However — that is not reality. As we all know, Michigan started March with three straight losses against NCAA Tournament teams, only to win three straight in Indianapolis and take home the Big Ten Tournament Title. That brings us to Thursday, where the UC San Diego Tritons await as everyone’s not-unique-at-all upset pick. Regardless of how the rest of the season goes, this year has been a success…but the Wolverines are hungry for more.
NCAA Tournament: First Round
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (25-9) vs. No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons (30-4)
Date & Time: Thursday, March 20, 10 p.m. ET (probably later)
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV/Streaming: TBS
UCSD enters the tournament 36th in KenPom, which is quite strong for a 12 seed. At 30-4, the Big West champions are popular in bracket pools, boasting a top-60 offense and top-30 defense. That defense is boosted by the second-best turnover rate in the entire country, as every expert has parroted the past few days. However, the Tritons faced very little top-100 competition this year, with the only tournament opposition being San Diego State (who just got smacked in the First Four), falling to the Aztecs in the season opener.
This is also a roster full of Division II transfers, which is not necessarily a red flag, but something to note. Leading the way is Big West Player of the Year Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, a big guard who averages 19.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game on 61-percent shooting inside the arc. Also of note is Hayden Gray, who leads the nation in steals per game, while also hitting 42 percent of his threes. There is talent on this team and the metrics reflect that properly.
Offense: Trust the towers
The way Michigan wins this game is the way it won many games this season: letting Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf go to work. The former really cemented his importance to this team in his Big Ten Tournament MVP run, and no one on the UCSD roster has the size to match up with him one-on-one. The same could be said of Wolf, whose athleticism has the chance to cause big problems for a defense that has been sound but has yet to face a frontcourt anything like this.
Expect Tritons to double the post and force the ball out of Goldin’s hands. They allow the 11th-highest three-point rate in the country, meaning they dare their opponents to beat them from deep, which is a bit of a concern for the Wolverines, who have been inconsistent at best behind the arc. Michigan will have to take — and hit — some threes to keep the defense honest, but if the offense can generate a high volume of attempts from the bigs, good things are likely to happen.
Defense: Contain
Tait-Jones is a real threat, scoring a ton, distributing the ball well, and getting to the line at one of the highest rates in the country (79.8 percent). He is the top of the defensive scouting report, but Michigan cannot get caught focusing so much on him that the Tritons get a bunch of looks from three themselves, as they are hitting 36.5 percent of their shots from deep this year (57th nationally). Exchanging twos for threes is how an upset happens, so the Wolverines must be cognizant of this risk.
The other thing that stands out about UCSD’s offensive profile is a very low offensive rebounding rate, ranking in the 300s. This is not a surprise given the size of the roster and its tendencies with the ball, but poor defensive rebounding played a big role in the Wolverines’ struggle down the stretch. Especially against a team so reliant on threes, the defense absolutely cannot give up tons of second-chance opportunities. Objectively, Michigan has a big advantage on this side of the ball, but missed defensive rotations and lackadaisical rebounding could easily neutralize it and make Thursday night uncomfortable.
Path to victory
I am not devoting a lot of time to the turnover angle because I truthfully find it surface-level and overblown. Michigan has been sloppy with the ball all season, but rarely is that the reason why games have ended in losses; in fact, bad defensive rebounding and cold three-point shooting worry me more. While steals have been the biggest talking point all week across the industry, I have a hard time believing they will decide the game.
No, what should — and likely will — determine the outcome is how UCSD handles Goldin and Wolf. This is a skilled team that looks much tougher than a traditional 12 seed, but no opponent this year has resembled anything close the Wolverines’ bigs. If Michigan plays level-headed and leans on its strength, this could become a comfortable win. Given that most wins have gone down to the wire, that is probably the more likely outcome, but either way, Dusty May should feel good about his team’s chances heading into this one.