No one expects Michigan to knock off the No. 1-overall seed Auburn, but no one expected the Wolverines to get this far to begin with. Here is our game preview for Friday’s shocking Sweet 16 appearance:
When the Michigan Wolverines make the NCAA Tournament, they make the Sweet 16, and once again they are still dancing as the second weekend rolls around. The incredible turnaround from a year ago continues after escaping darling-pick UC San Diego and mounting an impressive comeback against Texas A&M. This whole postseason was probably house money after the regular season, and certainly is after the Big Ten Tournament championship, and it is hard to argue against that freedom playing a beneficial role here.
Michigan now draws the top-overall team in the tournament, the Auburn Tigers. Dominant for much of the year, Auburn locked up the first No. 1 seed despite losing three of its last four games heading into the dance. This team is no joke, though at fourth in KenPom, the matchup could have been worse for the Wolverines. It will take some heroics to keep moving on, but it is impossible to feel anything but positive about Dusty May’s program right now.
NCAA Tournament: Sweet Sixteen
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (26-9) vs. No. 1 Auburn Tigers (30-5)
Date & Time: Friday, March 28, 9:39 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
TV/Streaming: CBS
Auburn played with its food in both games last weekend, leading No. 16 Alabama State by just a point late in the first half and trailing Creighton with under 15 minutes remaining. As mentioned, the Tigers ended the year relatively cold — including a double-digit loss to A&M on March 4 — and they have not exactly come to life in the tournament yet. Again, as far as battles against the top team in the bracket go, things could look much worse.
Still, this is the country’s third-best offense and 12th-best defense, without many obvious weaknesses. Auburn hits both twos and threes at an above-average rate, while taking care of the ball well (fifth-lowest turnover rate) and grabbing offensive boards. The defense is physical, racking up blocks, and allows very little behind the arc while forcing bad looks. This will be one of the best offenses and best defenses Michigan has seen all year, and certainly the most complete opponent of the season.
The Auburn scouting report starts with Johni Broome, who is (at worst) the second-best player in the entire country. He leads the Tigers in points (18.4), rebounds (10.7), and assists (3.0) and is a matchup nightmare. Broome has been dealing with some injuries down the stretch, but even limited he is a scary proposition. Add in a bunch of dangerous three-point shooters around him and it is no wonder why this team wins so much.
Offense: Controlled aggression
Narratives run deep in this contest, with the obvious connection in Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson. The Michigan guard has been extremely clutch the last two weeks, but he must keep his head on straight against his former team, as bad decisions will get punished — this defense would love nothing more than for Donaldson to play hero ball. The Wolverines also feature a member of the Yale team who upset the Tigers in last year’s tournament (Danny Wolf) and a former member of their big rivals (Nimari Burnett).
Michigan will need to stick to its identity on offense and hope it works well enough. Auburn will not help a ton in the post and will challenge Vlad Goldin to beat them straight up. If he and Wolf can stay shifty and win their one-on-ones, everything else opens up around them. This is a strong interior defense, so finishing at the basket — which has been a frustrating endeavor at times this season — is paramount. Goldin has been somewhat quiet despite strong production the last two weeks, but this is the great spot for a monster outing from the centerpiece.
What can help relieve some of the burden from the bigs is attacking in transition. Against a defense like this, it makes life a thousand times easier to get going before everyone is set. This is where Donaldson can make a statement, facilitating an aggressive, but smart offense on the move. Michigan’s pace leveled out a little as the season progressed, but it was running off all of those A&M misses that helped fuel the comeback in Denver. Even in the halfcourt, the Wolverines cannot settle for a bunch of iso jumpers; like Roddy Gayle and L.J. Cason showed last week, getting downhill can jump start this offense.
Defense: Just survive
The other end of the floor will be where May can really show off his genius. He first must figure out how to best handle Broome, who is plenty capable of scoring himself or finding an open lethal shooter, of which Auburn has many. I would not expect Michigan to double the superstar, but finding the right way to provide help for Goldin without compromising the rest of the defense is essential given the Wolverines’ shallow frontcourt.
Likewise, May will have to think about whether he wants his defense to continue switching everything. Denver Jones (41.7 percent), Miles Kelly (39.4), and Chad Baker-Mazara (38.7) need little asking to knock down a triple, and it just takes one defensive slip up to give them that chance. Michigan has actually been pretty good against threes recently, but continued incidents of suspect ball screen defense makes me think luck is playing a role here.
Auburn is going to score a lot, with Broome getting his way and shooters draining outside shots. What the Wolverines must do is not let things get out of control, especially since this will feel like a true away game. As against any elite team, the defense cannot make the task even harder than it already is. That means continuing to rebound well and making the Tigers actually work for their shots, not leaving anyone open on the perimeter. No one is asking for a lockdown performance, but a disregard of fundamentals will make an upset impossible.
One chance is all it takes
This is Michigan’s 12th NCAA Tournament since John Beilein arrived and the fifth game against a No. 1 seed. In addition to the Championship Game defeats to Louisville and Villanova, the 2010-11 squad fell just short against Duke in the Second Round. Meanwhile, surely every fan remembers the lone win amongst these previous four attempts: the 2013 Trey Burke winner over Kansas in the Sweet 16.
To knock off another top seed in the second weekend, the Wolverines are going to have to win a shootout. Auburn has posted under 1.05 PPP just once in March, but had some tough defensive outings during its cold end to the year. While Michigan has not really had an elite shooting game since January, the offense is finding ways to get it done against multiple quality defenses as of late and definitely can score on Friday.
Roster to roster, this looks like a big mismatch, but there are some reasons for hope. If Goldin and Wolf can stand up against Broome and Baker-Mazara, then it gives Michigan’s perimeter defenders a shot. Similarly, if the bigs can draw in the Tigers’ defenders enough to open up some spacing, the Wolverines will have a chance to get to the basket and avoid being sucked into a jump shooting contest. Auburn wins this game eight times out of 10, but there is absolutely a world where Michigan pulls off the upset.