Michigan limped through the end of the regular season, but the page has turned. Friday’s bout against Purdue starts a new chapter:
On one hand, four losses in the final six games (including each of the final three) is not how the Michigan Wolverines wanted to wrap up the regular season. On the other, this season is an undeniable success for Dusty May in his first year at the helm, even if his squad loses both of its next two games. Obviously, that is not the goal, so the Wolverines will need to hit the reset button and come out swinging Friday night in Indianapolis.
The hot stretch after New Year’s and the narrow wins that followed were enough to lock Michigan into a top-four seed and a double bye. While this is certainly an honor, it does mean that there is no gimme as a Big Ten Tournament opener, and indeed the Wolverines get things started with a third contest against the Purdue Boilermakers this season. While the Boilermakers stumbled down the stretch as well, this is a top-15 KenPom team that already gave Michigan a black eye once this year, so this necessitates a strong performance.
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (22-9, 14-6) vs. No. 6 Purdue Boilermakers (22-10, 13-7)
Date & Time: Friday, March 14, 9 p.m. ET (kinda)
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Indianapolis, IN
TV/Streaming: BTN
The Big Ten looked like Purdue’s to lose at one point in time, but a 11-2 start somehow turned into a 13-7 finish. Nevertheless, the Boilermakers had the No. 1 offense in conference play, with the best two-point (57.7 percent) and three-point (38.9 percent) shooting in the league, and the No. 7 defense to go along with it. Those numbers were good enough to be top-10 offensively in the nation — though the other side of the ball is a different story.
It has been an unmitigated disaster for Purdue defensively in the paint. Opponents are hitting 56.2 percent of their twos, put the Boilermakers last in the conference and bottom 20 in the country. Michigan was right around this mark in both of the prior games against them, and this will certainly be the strategy again, especially with the long-range shooting completely bottoming out.
Despite this glaring flaw, Purdue is still a scary team with Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer ready to catch fire at any point and Trey Kaufman-Renn a monster down low (see: 30 points Thursday night). I suppose this is not the absolute worst draw for the Wolverines, who have proven this is an opponent they can beat, but metrics (rightfully) consider them an underdog on Friday despite being the higher seed.
Two Things to Watch
In March, basketball is not about getting fancy or learning something new. Teams lean — by choice or necessity — on their best options, and for May that is clearly Vlad Goldin. Though the big man had just 14 and 12 points in the earlier Purdue games, he has hit 20 in six of the last seven and now gets an interior defense that is in disarray. Michigan will need him to take over, and the elements are there for a memorable performance.
The benefit of Goldin performing well is the rest of the offense opening up, though I would advise against taking too many threes, both due to the Wolverines’ terrible outside shooting and the Boilermakers’ relatively strong perimeter defense. But if Goldin can suck in defenders and leave space open for cutters, the Wolverines could have a nice bounce back on offense.
Purdue has the ability to win in a bunch of ways, and both Loyer and Kaufman-Renn were pains to deal with in both games. However, the offense starts and stops with Smith, and locking him is essential. Michigan was actually decent against Jeremy Fears and Ja’Kobi Gillespie, and it honestly could have been worse against Kasparas Jakucionis, but Smith was lethal in the previous contests, nearly hitting that buzzer beater to steal the win in Ann Arbor.
If the cold shooting continues for Michigan, then some of the main contributors are going to have to make up for it on the defensive end. This starts with Rubin Jones, but really it will be a team effort to not have breakdowns on screens and to force the ball out of Smith’s hands. Michigan has been letting opponents take a bunch of shots from deep, but giving the Boilermakers’ star tons of uncontested opportunities is only going to go poorly.
As frustrating as the past month has been for the Wolverines, this is still a 22-win team that has the ability to go lights-out at any moment. Coming off their longest stretch without a game in forever, I expect May to have his team mentality prepared. Purdue looked questionable at times against USC, and in terms of quarterfinal draws, this is a good opportunity for Michigan to notch another key win and get back on track.