Amazingly, the Michigan Wolverines are headed to the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game in Year 1 of the Dusty May era. Here is our preview for today’s game against Wisconsin:
Tell any fan 12 months ago that the Michigan Wolverines would be in the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game a year later and you would receive anywhere between 8-24 minutes of straight laughing. Make that claim a month ago, though, when the Wolverines were 12-2 in conference play, and no one would be considering it bold at all. Fast forward to six days ago, and yea, back to laughing.
Basketball, like life, is a roller coaster. This season has seen plenty of ups and downs, but Dusty May’s first year in Ann Arbor is unequivocally a success, regardless of how Sunday — and the next three weeks — plays out. May’s first big statement was a win at the Kohl Center in December; his squad just needs to beat the Wisconsin Badgers once more for a Big Ten Tournament title.
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (24-9, 14-6) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (26-8, 13-7)
Date & Time: Sunday, March 16, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Indianapolis, IN
TV/Streaming: CBS
It was a well-played game by both sides on Saturday, but back-to-back blocks on three-point attempts helped Wisconsin take down Michigan State to advance to the final. The big difference was 1.11 PPP on offense compared to just 0.85 PPP during the game in East Lansing, but the defense showed up as well, impressively holding the Spartans to a season-low 22.2 percent offensive rebounding rate.
Michigan handed Wisconsin its first loss of the year, but the Badgers still ended up with a strong season. A 13-7 record in the Big Ten is nothing to criticize, and KenPom considers this to be a borderline top-10 team. Like the Wolverines, Wisconsin did falter a bit down the stretch, but the upset of the regular season champions show what can happen when this team is playing at its best.
These Badgers play quicker than in years past and have an excellent offense (11th nationally) thanks to decent shooting and low turnover numbers. The defense is solid as well, with above-average figures everywhere except for blocks and steals. This will be Michigan’s third straight game against an AP and KenPom top-20 squad, so there are not many weaknesses to exploit.
Sunday’s Keys
This is not going to be a track meet, but there will be points to be had on Sunday. Wisconsin has the ability to score in multiple ways and the Wolverines are thankfully regaining their shooting stroke at just the right time. Expect more of the same with both teams feeling confident, especially John Tonje, who has scored 76 points in Indianapolis already.
Both teams were under 1.00 PPP in Madison, but in the literal conference opener that could be expected. It will be a fascinating contrast between Tonje’s elite shooting and the Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin combination that worked so well in the early-season win. The x-factor could very well be the Michigan backcourt, with Tre Donaldson playing on fire at the perfect time.
Indeed, Saturday’s dramatic win over Maryland felt like prime Michigan — in the good and the bad ways. Turnovers were an issue, a giant lead was acquired and subsequently lost, and late-game heroics were once again on the menu. The uninspiring end to the season covered up some of those earlier dramas, but this team proved over the course of the year that it can pull out wins in tricky circumstances.
I would imagine this is going to be the case against Wisconsin, as opposed to Friday’s more comprehensive victory. The Badgers can put together some scoring runs, and it may come down to who performs best in the final few minutes. The Wolverines looked pretty out of it in basically every loss down the stretch (with the exception of Maryland, coincidentally), but if they can hang close for 35, 36 minutes on Sunday, good things may happen.
It feels extremely poetic that the Badgers are the ones on the other side in this one. As great as it would have been to get revenge over State, that was always going to be a tough ask. Despite Wisconsin’s quality, this is a winnable game, as May’s group showed back in December. There would be no better symmetry to beat the same team again on Sunday, this time to put a bow on this exciting Big Ten season.