If Michigan is going to challenge for a Big Ten title, winning at Purdue tonight would go a long way. Here is our basketball game preview:
After a lighter three-game stretch — which turned out to be anything but easy — the Michigan Wolverines now face their toughest remaining test of the year, at least according to KenPom’s win probability (36 percent). The No. 11 Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a bad defeat themselves, falling to Ohio State on Tuesday, and like the Wolverines, will be looking to use this game to reaffirm their status as a legitimate Big Ten threat.
That loss snapped Purdue’s 26-game home winning streak, and even with the departure of Zach Edey, last year’s national runner-up is looking strong again. This game will provide Michigan with a big chance to strengthen a resume that already features wins at the Kohl Center and Pauley Pavilion. This is exactly what FOX wanted from Friday night basketball: two top-25 squads, both sitting inside KenPom’s top-15.
No. 21 Michigan Wolverines (14-4, 6-1) at No. 11 Purdue Boilermakers (15-5, 7-2)
Date & Time: Friday, Jan. 24, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
TV/Streaming: FOX
Purdue enters the game with a 7-2 record in Big Ten play, having also dropped a game to Penn State earlier in the season. Wins over Alabama and Ole Miss speak to the team’s credentials, while losses to Marquette, Texas A&M and Auburn were more missed opportunities than blemishes. As the Big Ten hierarchy comes into view, these two teams, along with Illinois and Michigan State, are the clear upper tier.
The Wolverines are just 1-4 against Purdue over the past three seasons, though each of those games came against top-five Boilermakers teams. Michigan did manage road victories in West Lafayette during the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, but those Purdue squads were not quite as strong. While this year’s team may not quite reach elite status either, Matt Painter’s group remains a significant challenge, especially at home.
One Big Question: Is the secret sauce spoiling?
Michigan’s offense has been fueled by its elite two-point shooting, which ranks third nationally. However, this figure has dipped slightly in conference play (57.7 percent) and has gone relatively cold over the past two games (43.2 percent). Given that neither Minnesota nor Northwestern is known for elite interior defense, this decline is cause for some concern.
Some of the struggles appear to be outliers, such as Vlad Goldin’s uncharacteristic 4-for-12 performance at the rim against the Gophers and Danny Wolf’s 0-for-7 outing on Sunday. Still, interior play was always going to be challenged in the Big Ten, and opponents have had time to scout the Wolverines’ early success in this department. On the bright side, Purdue’s two-point defense ranks in the 200s and just allowed 59-percent shooting to an Ohio State offense not nearly as good as this one.
If Michigan can regain its touch — not just from its big men but also from guards and wings driving to the basket — then the past two games could be dismissed as a blip. However, another subpar offensive performance against a vulnerable interior defense would raise red flags. The Boilermakers may throw the kitchen sink at the bigs, so the Wolverines will need to find the mismatches and capitalize.
One Thing to Watch: Same but different
While Michigan and Purdue employ different styles, their overall metrics are strikingly similar. Both boast top-15 offenses and top-30 defenses. Each team shoots efficiently, struggles at the free-throw line, and can cough up turnovers. Defensively, neither fouls excessively or gives up a lot of threes, though they are on the opposite sides in effective field goal percentage and turnover rates. Tempo is the starkest contrast, with Michigan (as almost always) playing much faster than its opponent.
How each offense approaches the other’s style of defense will be fascinating. Purdue thrives on ball movement and patience, with Trey Kaufman-Renn serving as a facilitator for sharpshooters like Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith, who both shoot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. The Boilermakers are patient with the ball, which could be problematic for a Michigan defense that has stopped generating takeaways; rebounding and limiting shot attempts will be critical, as is defensive discipline and maintaining assignments.
On the other end, Michigan’s quick pace and aggressive mentality will aim to exploit Purdue’s defense in the paint. As mentioned above, the Wolverines need to convert the high-percentage looks they get; neither Goldin nor Wolf can afford a clunker. If both teams execute their game plans, this contest will likely come down to which defense can impose its will and force the opponent out of rhythm. Expect a close, lower-scoring affair that comes down to execution.