Michigan Basketball’s subpar play is starting to affect its record at the worst possible time, but a win over Maryland would be a good recovery. Here is our preview for tonight’s game:
Playing with fire too many times always ends the same way, and now the Michigan Wolverines have been humbled twice in a 10-day span. All is not lost, with (at least) a shared Big Ten title still on the table, but recent performances suggest the required results are more theoretical than actually attainable.
For that reason, Wednesday’s visit from the Maryland Terrapins feels like a huge barometer for the rest of the season. The Terps are a top-15 KenPom team and may end with top-five seed, but at home, this is a gettable significant win. Michigan probably did not need a wake-up call, but certainly got one on Sunday. We will see if that translates to any improvements, or if we get more of the same frustrations.
No. 13 Maryland Terrapins (22-7, 12-6) at No. 17 Michigan Wolverines (22-7, 14-4)
Date & Time: Wednesday, Mar. 5, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: BTN
Maryland has suffered plenty of its own frustration this year, with its last three losses all coming essentially at the buzzer. Still, a 12-6 record puts the Terps in contention for a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, and the metrics think this is a dangerous squad with at top-30 offense and the 12th-best defense in the nation.
The last two games in this series have gone Maryland’s way after the Wolverines had won the previous four contests going back to the start of the 2020-21 season. With Juwan Howard and Hunter Dickinson departing, the sparks are gone a bit between these two schools, which is certainly for the best.
One Big Question: Is the defense salvageable?
Aside from the Nebraska brick-chucking affair, the Michigan defense has been pretty rough over the past four outings, culminating in Sunday’s beatdown. Both Illinois and Michigan State dominated the glass, but even from a shooting standpoint, the Wolverines simply have not been good enough on this end of the floor, especially with a non-existent turnover threat.
Maryland comes into this one as the second-best three-point shooting team in the conference with Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Selton Miguel, and Rodney Rice all taking and making a bunch of shots from deep. Michigan has experimented with drop coverage and zone, but nothing seems to be working lately. The Terps are not known for their offensive rebounding, but second chances on Wednesday will be deadly. If the Wolverines can defend the perimeter they will stay in the game, but failing to do so confirms things are in a bad place.
One Thing to Watch: Plan B on offense
The days of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin powering the offense to 1.20 PPP games behind the two-big screen game are lone gone. Wolf has been very pedestrian, owning just a 104 ORtg on the year, and Goldin’s impact is significantly reduced with few capable shooters surrounding him. Michigan needs a new plan of attack on offense and will be really tested by a stout Maryland defense that does not have many obvious weaknesses.
To me, that means playing with aggression and capitalizing in transition, as too often the ball looks stagnant in half-court sets. Tre Donaldson and Roddy Gayle have wavered from deep, and attacking the rim seems much more viable for them, even if it is just to provide spacing for Nimari Burnett. There is no magical fix for this team, and not even an L.J. Cason emergence will solve the depth issues, but Dusty May needs to find a way for this incomplete roster to generate enough offense to stay afloat in March. It is too late to expect drastic changes, but there needs to be a spark from somewhere.