For Michigan to pull the upset against USC on Saturday, the game plan must look a lot like those of recent past. We lay out the details in our game preview:
Heading into the season, it felt like the Michigan Wolverines ’ path to the playoff was narrow, but clear: beat one of Texas, Oregon, or Ohio State and win all the rest. Part of “the rest” were the Southern California Trojans, a flawed team who many (including Vegas) expected to really struggle against Michigan in their Big Ten debut.
The two teams could not be headed in more opposite directions. No. 11 USC is 2-0 with a win over No. 16 LSU, showing the country that it has addressed its biggest flaw, the defense. Meanwhile, the No. 18 Wolverines have lost their identity and are forced into a quarterback change after just three games. This blue-blood matchup is now a major inflection point for both teams in terms of how they fit in the conference and national picture.
No. 11 Southern California Trojans (2-0, 0-0) at No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (2-1, 0-0)
Date & Time: Saturday, Sep. 21, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: CBS
USC sits 17th per SP+…which is actually lower than Michigan (No. 12). Some of this is due to historical data that will eventually become less important, but it does point to the fact that the Trojans are still a bit unproven; specifically, SP+ has the defense just 70th right now. The offense is a legit top-five unit, however, and that feels like more of a certainty than calling the Wolverines a top-five defense, which the advanced metrics still believe.
These two national brands have met 10 times prior, eight of them happening at the Rose Bowl . The two most recent encounters were against the Big Bad Wolf of the 2000s, where the Trojans came away victorious on New Year’s Day 2004 and 2007. For many millennial Michigan fans, USC was the team that caused the most despair. Now members of the same conference, this is the first of three contests between these storied programs over the next five seasons.
Groupthink
Once Sherrone Moore announced Alex Orji would be taking over at quarterback, the entire college football sphere has spit out the same two words all week: “triple option.” I think the spirit of this sentiment is fair — that Orji’s best asset is the unpredictability he causes defenses because of how his legs must be treated. Expecting a completely different offense is unreasonable, though; Michigan is not going to bring a brand new playbook out of nowhere.
Moore knows that he really needs this game, and I think he will have no choice but to go with what gives him the most confidence. That could lead to some personnel choices like the swap to Orji, but it also might look like some play calling that reverts back to what has worked in the past. It is not that the offense has been too wonky, but it does not feel like Michigan is playing to its strength. That must change this weekend, and I think it finally will.
The USC defense definitely looks better, but remember that the Tigers still rushed for 4.5 yards per carry in the opener. Now is the time to lean on Kalel Mullings over and over and hope Donovan Edwards can hit a home run or two. Orji will need to make at least a few throws to keep the chains moving, but this one comes down to how his legs transform the offense, whether he is keeping the ball or not.
Made for Hollywood
No one can script it better than this: SP+’s fourth-ranked offense versus the fourth-ranked defense. Michigan must embrace this strength-on-strength opportunity — winning this side of the ball should hopefully be enough to win this game. Doing that means the studs up front have to have a massive afternoon. If there ever was a time for Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant to completely take over, this is their opportunity, both by winning their individual battles and freeing up the edges to wreak havoc.
That is because quarterback Miller Moss looks like the real deal. The redshirt junior is 11th in completion rate (72.7) and 12th in yards per game (303.5) on the young season. While Moss does not have a ton of experience, Lincoln Riley absolutely does. The savvy offensive mind will know how to get Zachariah Branch, Kyron Hudson, and even Woody Marks away from Will Johnson and schemed into dangerous situations, just like how Texas used the screen game and quick hitters to keep the Michigan defense off balance.
This is the reason the defensive line has to be unbeatable this weekend. Pressuring Moss will not allow him to pick apart the younger defensive backs (read: Jyaire Hill) and could force him into some mistakes. Conversely, Michigan mistakes will tank this game, just like it did against the Longhorns. Another terrible third-down performance, multiple missed tackles, and coverage busts will just be too hard to overcome against an offense like this.
Look back to go forward
The path to victory is tricky, but there is a true shot at the upset here. Orji is getting the attention, but really he is just a symbol of a potential offensive transformation. No one is going to know the strengths and weaknesses of the offensive line better than Moore, and I think he is going to plan around that. We already saw his willingness to play the hot hand in Happy Valley last season, and a similar approach, plus the introduction of Orji, is the smart way to go.
On the other side of the ball, it feels like less is more. Wink Martindale is less likely to bring the exotic disguises featured by his predecessor-protegees, but swamping out some blitzes for confusing coverages would be welcome. Martindale will have to trust that his front four can create enough pressure, allowing the secondary to camp out and really challenge Moss. USC is going to score some points, but there is no way Michigan learned nothing from the Texas fiasco. In a true strength-on-strength affair, I am blinding putting some trust in the defense, to not only perform better, but to adapt.