A rough season is only going to get tougher with an absolutely loaded November schedule. Michigan begins this stretch by welcoming top-ranked Oregon to the Big House on Saturday. Our game preview:
Technically…there is a path. While a 9-3 record faces an uphill battle to make the College Football Playoff, wins against No. 1 Oregon, No. 13 Indiana, and No. 4 Ohio State would almost surely put the Michigan Wolverines in the postseason. However, that really should not be anyone’s focus on Saturday. Instead, building on some of the positives from the win over Michigan State and playing a more competitive game than that against Texas would be an admirable afternoon.
Michigan is not typically striving for moral victories, but expectations change when you are a two-touchdown underdog at home. The No. 1 Oregon Ducks are on fire and could easily make this one quite ugly, so keeping it close enough to make an upset bid in Columbus seem even remotely possible would be nice. But hey, this is college football, so dream big; crazier things have happened.
No. 1 Oregon Ducks (8-0, 5-0) at Michigan Wolverines (5-3, 3-2)
Date & Time: Saturday, Nov. 2, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: CBS
It is safe to say Oregon is enjoying life in the new Big Ten. After a relatively slow start to the season, Dan Lanning’s team is on a tear, hanging on against the slide-too-laters then dismantling Purdue and a ranked Illinois last weekend. SP+ has this team fourth-overall (Texas is first) with the No. 2 offense and No. 15 defense. Aside from Ohio State, the Ducks have won each of their past five games by at least 20 points — this is a legitimate national championship contender.
There is limited history between these two schools, but what does exist is not great. The two meetings this century both went Oregon’s way, with the No. 3 Wolverines upset in Eugene in 2003, then the post-Horror, Dennis Dixon catastrophe in 2007. Basketball has not been much better, with Oregon taking the past three, including the Sweet Sixteen win in 2016-17 and last December’s overtime loss.
The true dual-threat
Oregon has not many flaws on defense, with good numbers against both the pass and the run. The linebacking corps of Bryce Boettcher, Jeff Bassa, and Devon Jackson is legit, so running the ball is unlikely to yield many home runs. The secondary is good enough to hold up on its own with corners Jabbar Muhammad and Nikko Reed shutting down actual passing offenses this year, and really there is no weakness to attack. Michigan has been inconsistent, predictable, and non-explosive, making this out to be a very one-sided affair when the Wolverines have the ball.
Let me be clear: I do not expect Michigan to win this game, and even keeping it close will be tough, as this offense at no point shown it can be relied upon consistently. That being said, if there is any sort of path for an upset, it requires the quarterback situation to be deployed nearly flawlessly. Michigan must out the linebackers in conflict, making them account for the quarterback in the run game and having the backs, slots, and tight ends move all over the field. I think this is a long-shot to actually happen, but that is the only way this team is scoring points.
The summer was spent imagining an option-heavy Alex Orji offense, only for Davis Warren to be named the starter to open up the year. Coaches spoke about using both quarterbacks, and while technically that happened, it seemed to suit neither of them and did not play to their strengths. After weeks of frustrations and multiple attempts at a solution, last weekend’s win over State finally resembled something that fans had been hoping to see, with Warren moving the ball in the air and Orji bringing that vital change of pace on the ground.
The tenets of the strategy remain the same: trust Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards and leverage Colston Loveland as a safety net. However, the rest of the game plan needs to be completely out of left field. Orji going deep? Warren on the read option? Multiple multi-back formations? End arounds, jet sweeps, the triple option! At least some play action?? Might as well try it all, as Michigan lacks the talent at nearly every position.
Containment and fundamentals
Dillon Gabriel is finding himself in the Heisman conversation and is every bit deserving. His impressive 76.2-percent completion rate leads the country, and at 9.4 YPA he is not just checking the ball down. Gabriel is averaging over 300 yards his past three games with eight passing touchdowns in them, and he has also found the end zone five times this season on the ground. Worse quarterbacks have taken advantage of the Michigan secondary this year, so this feels like a very dicey situation.
Though there has clearly been a big downgrade at coordinator this year, the hope is Wink Martindale can take on the CJ Stroud/Michael Penix approach of his predecessors (proteges). Michigan cannot completely shut down this passing attack, but it needs to make it work. If there ever was a time for some exotic coverages and disguised looks, this is the game to pull them out, similar to the second-half offensive play calling last week. Gabriel is a very experienced veteran with talented pass catchers in Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart, so confusing him and making him work for his yards is the only way to prevent the onslaught.
The Ducks can run the ball as well. Jordan James is a real threat averaging exactly 100 yards per game on good efficiency with eight scores on the year. However, the Wolverines would probably prefer to see Gabriel handing the ball off. Even though the Spartans converted too many third-and-longs on the ground, the run defense has been decent and ranks 33rd in YPC, and 29th in yards per game, against Power Four opponents. I maintain that most of the issues in run defense are due to trying to get too creative, and if Martindale can channel that energy into the back seven instead then maybe there is a chance of slowing Oregon down.
Basically as is the case every game, Michigan’s hope on defense rests with the front four. The Ducks offensive line is not impenetrable, and getting to Gabriel is the only way to hold down this offense. The Wolverines need to be careful to not overpursue and give up a bunch of free scrambles, but quarterback pressures are a necessity. Again, Martindale cannot keep getting cute, shifting Mason Graham around and substituting wildly; he needs to trust his studs to win their one-on-ones as they are presented, which they certainly can.
Expectation management
Michigan has faced some great teams in recent years (Ohio State, Georgia, Texas), but rarely does it feel like this heading into a game. Even though last weekend brought a win, there are still obvious issues on both sides of the ball and nothing is coming easily. Oregon is elite across the board and has handled teams that do not carry the Wolverines’ level of struggles; a close game Saturday seems like wishful thinking.
The path to victory is extremely narrow, but if an upset does happen it probably includes some Oregon turnovers. Gabriel has five picks in his last five, including two in the red zone against Michigan State. The Michigan secondary has been close at times, and some key takeaways are a must. On offense, Warren has to be mistake-free himself, and Orji must finally represent a true running threat that keeps the defense on its toes. None of these things are especially likely, but one can dream.