Who’s in? Who’s out? By process of elimination, Andrew whittles down the “probable” College Football Playoff picture for 2024.
College football is only two days away!
Optimism and excitement have reached a fever pitch across the country and this is finally the year for [insert favorite team] to win it all. One of my favorite authors, John L. Parker, referred to September as “the month of promises,” and for college football fans, the promise of ultimate success is only 16-17 elusive wins away.
At this moment, every team has a chance to win it all — well, maybe not every team — but hope is running more rampant than if we were about to tunnel out of Shawshank Prison . Breathe it in.
Now, back to reality. It’s time for an injection of realism into this daydream to help narrow down which teams can reach the College Football Playoff (CFP) and ultimately win it all.
With an eliminator-style format, let’s get to it.
Group of Five
These first eliminations are simple. Out of the 134 FBS programs, 62 of them are Group of Five schools. Of those 62, only one is making the CFP.
Appalachian State, UTSA, Memphis, and Boise State will make some noise this season, but ultimately, the Group of Five bid will fall to the Liberty Flames who do not play one single Power Four opponent this season.
While we’re here, let’s also eliminate two independent programs — UConn and UMass — and strike off the state school stragglers from the West – Oregon State and Washington State .
Liberty is in. 68 teams remain alive for the final 11 spots.
Bottom Feeders
No team made the four-team CFP coming off consecutive losing seasons and let’s apply that same logic here despite the expanded field. Goodbye to Baylor, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan State , Colorado, Stanford, Arizona State , California, Florida, Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Virginia.
Sure, one of these teams could shock the world and make a surprise run, but with new super conferences and a plethora of teams on the fringes, it remains highly unlikely.
56 teams remain alive for the final 11 spots.
Locks
Before we continue with eliminations, let’s add a pair of locks to join Liberty in the CFP. Here is a list of active head coaches to beat Kirby Smart in the last five years:
Georgia is in.
Ohio State has not missed the CFP — when it was just four teams — in consecutive years under Ryan Day. The Buckeyes are not missing in consecutive years in an expanded field. Ohio State is in.
54 teams remain alive for nine spots.
The Power Four’s Top Six
As we get closer to the end, the process becomes more art than science to narrow the field. Let’s take a closer look at each Power Four conference and establish the true top six contenders for each.
ACC: Keep Clemson, Florida State , Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State , and Virginia Tech , and cut Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest , Boston College, UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech , and SMU.
Big 12: Keep Kansas State , Kansas, Oklahoma State, WVU, Utah, and Arizona, and cut UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, TCU , Texas Tech, and Iowa State .
Big Ten: Keep: Ohio State (locked), Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, Iowa, and Rutgers , and cut Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, USC, UCLA, and Washington.
SEC: Keep: Georgia (locked), Alabama, Missouri, Ole Miss , Texas, and Texas A&M , and cut South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, LSU , Arkansas, and Oklahoma.
A few of the toughest cuts include SMU, Georgia Tech, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Tennessee, LSU, Washington, and USC. Before you fire off an angry email, the only reason Rutgers is over the Trojans is due to scheduling.
Rutgers avoids playing Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State, while USC has to play LSU, Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame . In an expanded Big Ten, who would have thought that out of all the new matchups, Rutgers vs. USC on Oct. 25, would carry so much weight?
Speaking of Notre Dame, the Irish can stay too. Actually, with a favorable independent schedule and a big name, let’s lock the Irish in. Even at 10-2, it would be tough to keep Notre Dame on the outside.
Liberty, Georgia, Ohio State, and Notre Dame are in; 22 teams remain alive for eight spots.
The Math Of It All
Each Power Four conference is guaranteed one representative, but how many bids will each conference ultimately earn? Playing the numbers game, it’s reasonable to assume that the Big Ten and SEC will each earn three berths, and the ACC and Big 12 each receive two. With Ohio State and Georgia already established as locks, two more teams will make it from each conference listed below. Let’s get it down to a top three.
ACC: Keep Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville, and cut Miami (FL), NC State, and Virginia Tech.
The Wolfpack have never had a 10-win season and the Hokies have lost four or more games every year since 2011. As for Miami, until head coach Mario Cristobal proves that he can successfully call a kneel-down, I’m out.
Big 12: Keep Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Utah, and cut Kansas, WVU, and Arizona.
This is the hardest conference to predict. If Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels stays healthy, all bets are off, but he has never played more than nine games in a season so far. WVU and its power-running offense will be stifled by the schedule more than any opponent, and if Arizona had retained Jedd Fisch as head coach, the Wildcats would be the pick to win the conference. But, alas.
Big Ten: Keep Michigan, Oregon, and Penn State, and cut Iowa and Rutgers.
Scheduling gets Iowa and Rutgers into the top six but not into the top three.
SEC: Keep Alabama, Missouri, and Texas, and cut Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
Ole Miss has a favorable schedule, but games against Georgia and at LSU will separate the Fighting Kiffins from the top of the conference. In Mike Elko’s first year, the Aggies get Notre Dame, LSU, Missouri, and Texas all at home. It’ll be a resurgent year in College Station, but not a Playoff year.
12 teams remain alive for eight spots.
The 12-Team CFP
Every team remaining has a strong case for and against their place in the top 12. Honestly, flipping a coin might be a more accurate way to determine which of these teams make it, but let’s do our best.
Final eliminations:
- Texas – The toughest cut, but three losses might be all it takes for the Longhorns to miss out. It doesn’t help that quarterback Quinn Ewers has missed time each of the last two seasons either.
- Penn State – Simply comes down to whether or not you believe in quarterback Drew Allar. Even with a favorable schedule, I do not.
- Oklahoma State – Much like Penn State, it feels like the 12-team playoff was designed to help teams like Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy. However, until the Cowboys can avoid the inexcusable bad losses — smoked 33-7 by South Alabama and 45-3 by UCF last season — they are not making it in.
- Florida State – Can Mike Norvell reload through the portal again and empower D.J. Uiagalelei to lead the Seminoles to the promised land? In short, no.
Drum roll, please… The 2024 College Football Playoff will be:
ACC: Clemson and Louisville
Big 12: Utah and Kansas State
Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon
SEC: Georgia, Alabama, Missouri
Independent: Notre Dame
Group of Five: Liberty
Taking a look at the entire picture, roughly, 30 teams have a shot to make the CFP in what is shaping up to be one of the most exciting seasons in college football history. There are countless arguments to be made and only a few more days before hypotheticals are replaced with stone-cold evidence.
Football is back and the month of promises is nearly upon us. Finally, this is the year for [insert favorite team] to win it all!