Michigan’s final two regular season games are against Northwestern and Ohio State. Here’s a look at Michigan’s FPI metrics compared to the Wildcats and Buckeyes.
The Michigan Wolverines may be just 5-5 on the season, but they still have a lot to play for. Michigan still needs one win in their last two games to become bowl-eligible. Michigan’s final two contests are a home tilt against the 4-6 Northwestern Wildcats and a road matchup against the rival No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1).
Per ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index), Michigan has an 80.2% chance of beating Northwestern and just a 7% chance of defeating Ohio State.
Here’s a look at other FPI metrics and where Michigan ranks compared to Northwestern and Ohio State.
FPI
- Ohio State – No. 1 (25.9)
- Michigan – No. 42 (5.9)
- Northwestern – No. 79 (-2.6)
Strength of record
- Ohio State – No. 4
- Michigan – No. 46
- Northwestern – No. 73
Strength of schedule
- Michigan – No. 14
- Ohio State – No. 26
- Northwestern – No. 62
Remaining strength of schedule
- Michigan – No. 10
- Northwestern – No. 14
- Ohio State – No. 18
Game control
- Ohio State – No. 2
- Michigan – No. 51
- Northwestern – No. 70
Average in-game win probability
- Ohio State – No. 6
- Michigan – No. 78
- Northwestern – No. 91
Defensive efficiency
- Ohio State – No. 7
- Michigan – No. 40
- Northwestern – No. 50
Offensive efficiency
- Ohio State – No. 4
- Michigan – No. 86
- Northwestern – No. 118
Ohio State is far and away the best team when looking at these metrics, with Michigan in the middle and Northwestern ranking low in nearly every category. Michigan’s No. 10 ranked strength of schedule has made things all the more difficult for first-year head coach Sherrone Moore. Three of Michigan’s five losses have been to teams ranked in the top five in No. 1 Oregon, No. 3 Texas, and No. 5 Indiana. Ohio State’s schedule hasn’t been easy to this point either, though, losing to No. 1 Oregon but defeating No. 4 Penn State.
Last week we asked fans if they believe Michigan will make a bowl game and 79% of respondents believe the Wolverines will play in a bowl this year.
Realistically, Michigan has to win against Northwestern on Nov. 23 to make a bowl. If Michigan was to lose to Northwestern it would make the tilt against Ohio State all the more daunting. Although Michigan has beaten Ohio State three years in a row, this Michigan team isn’t rated nearly as high as those teams and beating the Buckeyes this time around would be considered a miracle.
“We’ve got to get it,” Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore said last week about still needing to clinch bowl eligibility. “It’s huge for us, huge for the program. Gives you another chance and opportunity to go play football, to get better and impact this team and put another win in the win column.”
While Michigan’s streak of three consecutive Big Ten Championships and College Football Playoff appearances will come to an end this season, playing in a bowl game is the bare minimum for a Michigan Wolverines team that won a National Championship last season.