Michigan meets Indiana, with one team fighting for bowl eligibility and the other hoping for a playoff berth. The roles are reversed this time, though. Our game preview:
For years, the Indiana Hoosiers have been the pesky trap game on the schedule. Often coming late in the year, the Michigan Wolverines successfully navigated the Big Ten East fodder nearly every time, though there were plenty of contests that were just too close for comfort. In a sick twist of fate, it is now the Wolverines who find themselves as the potentially overlooked when the teams meet in Bloomington.
That is because Indiana has a legitimate College Football Playoff shot, but with an ostensible one-game season, all attention has to be on the showdown in Columbus in a couple weeks. This weekend is certainly not meaningless, as keeping the record clean is important for the Hoosiers, but Michigan is no longer the game circled, highlighted, and underlined. Perhaps that gives the underdogs a chance, though an upset Saturday feels sadly unlikely.
Michigan Wolverines (5-4, 3-3) at No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers (9-0, 6-0)
Date & Time: Saturday, Nov. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
TV/Streaming: CBS
Indiana has taken the country by storm, earning the No. 8 spot in the first edition of the CFP rankings after demolishing everyone it has faced. Sure, the Hoosiers have played no one, but like Michigan last season, that does not preclude this team from being good. SP+ — famously opponent-adjusted — puts Indiana 11th overall, with the No. 14 offense and No. 18 defense. While there are questions to be asked about if 11-1 and no notable wins is enough for a playoff spot, that is irrelevant in speaking to the ability of this team.
The Wolverines have lost just once to the Hoosiers this CENTURY, in the fake 2020 season. That happened to be a discombobulated Michigan roster and a ranked Indiana team, so unfortunately the parallels are probably meaningful here. The only hope is the classic Uno reverse card here, with Indiana the one looking ahead to Ohio State, but being realistic: the Hoosiers and Curt Cignetti would love nothing more than to run up the score, regardless of how down Michigan is this season.
Take to the sky
Against Power Four competition, Indiana has completely shut down the run game, ranking sixth at 2.65 YPC and fourth at 75.2 YPG. This is a bad sign for a Michigan rushing offense that has really slowed down, especially Kalel Mullings. After an electric start to the year, Mullings has just 170 yards over the past four weeks; Donovan Edwards is not far ahead of him with 209. Through no fault of the running backs, the foundation of this team has crumbled away.
This figures are not a huge surprise given the offensive line struggles, consistently stacked boxes, and scoreboard deficits the Wolverines are facing. The offense has become predictable, despite it being clear teams are selling out to stop the run. Saturday will bring much of the same given Indiana’s defensive skew, which may force Michigan to go to the air and trust (the once turnover-prone?) Davis Warren against a defense that has seven picks in the last three games.
Warren certainly looked better since his benching, but he is never going to be a game-changer. Michigan’s best chance is to continue finding ways to get the ball out of his hands early, let him throw before third down, and for once scheme him open some receivers, especially if the run game is going to be limited. Quarterbacks have been able to move the ball a bit against the Hoosiers — mostly because they are forced to throw due to the scoreboard — but it is difficult to consider this a profitable path for the Wolverines if nothing changes.
The same old song
Indiana’s turnaround begins with Kurtis Rourke, who has been excellent in nearly every category. He may not be at 100 percent health, but honestly that should not make a difference. Like Will Rogers, Luke Altmyer, and Dillon Gabriel, Rourke is not going to put the ball in harm’s way and will instead hit the throws that are made available to him (which will likely be many); his 73.3-percent completion rate sits just behind Gabriel’s, while he sits second nationally at 10.5 YPA.
Rourke is another transfer with plenty of experience, and again this is a tough ask for a Michigan secondary that struggles even at full strength. He distributes the ball well, with four different receivers logging at least 200 yards and three scores on the year, with Elijah Sarrett leading both of those categories. At 46.6 PPG the Hoosiers can obviously run the ball as well, and the tandem of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawson have 18 touchdowns and over 1,000 rushing yards between them.
As productive as all of these skill players are, the biggest reason for concern for when then Hoosiers have the ball is the play calling. Indiana has done a great job being creative and giving Rourke plenty of options, while Michigan has arguably done the exact opposite with its defense. The Wolverines have struggled to create enough pressure this season to give the back seven a chance and they now face an offensive line that has allowed just seven sacks all year. Theoretically, the defensive line playing to its potential could be an equalizer, but since we have yet to see that materialize, I assume this is going to be another frustrating outing from an opposing quarterback.
SOS
Should Michigan somehow pull off the upset, Indiana will become the poster child for the “Ain’t Played Nobody” crowd. It is not unreasonable to think that this is the most talented roster the Hoosiers have faced (at least defensively…) and perhaps that can cause some trouble should they actually experience a close game in the second half. The Wolverines continue to play behind their ability and it certainly feels like at some point some positive regression is due — believing that would finally occur against Indiana rather than someone like Oregon is justifiable.
Still, no one can really protest another double-digit spread against Michigan. Cignetti screamed his intentions to take down the Big Ten giants, but I am just not sure how much of an accomplishment that would be given the current state of this team. The offense has failed to hit 20 points in three of the past four, and even with Warren looking better, I cannot envision the Wolverines keeping up with the Indiana offense. I think another 20-point loss is more likely than the upset, unless the visitors actually play up to their talent and the Hoosiers are caught looking ahead. Someone will probably bring this team down to earth, but it is hard to see that being Michigan.