This year’s multi-team event sends Michigan to Florida with a couple winnable games on the docket, starting with a slumping Virginia Tech:
Dusty May has held serve through five games as the head coach of the Michigan Wolverines , winning the four contests at home and narrowly dropping the not-so-neutral site game against Wake Forest that the Wolverines let slip away. Just as the team is starting to get hot, Michigan also travels to warmer weather to take part in the 2024 Fort Myers Tip-Off, opening against the Virginia Tech Hokies on Monday.
Unlike Michigan, Virginia Tech is moving in the wrong direction (No. 128 per KenPom), losing its last two games, including a disastrous loss at home to Jacksonville. With future resume and NET rating calculations in mind, the Wolverines really need to win this one; doing so sets up an interesting championship game against either Xavier (the more likely outcome) or South Carolina on Wednesday evening.
Michigan Wolverines (4-1) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (3-2)
Date & Time: Monday, Nov. 26, 6 p.m. ET
Location: Suncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers, FL
TV/Streaming: FS1
Expectations were muted for Virginia Tech this season after missing the last two NCAA Tournaments, but the past week and a half has perhaps moved the bar even lower. A 20-point loss to Penn State in Baltimore was a sign of things to come, and that buy game defeat to Jacksonville is a huge red flag. The Hokies are yet another team that has an essentially brand new roster this year thanks to the transfer portal, but unlike the Wolverines, it is not clear that this combination of players is going to work.
Virginia Tech has won both previous meetings between these schools: at the 2002 Paradise Jam in the US Virgin Islands and a three-point victory in Ann Arbor during the 2016-17 Big Ten-ACC Challenge (RIP). Michigan’s last two games against ACC foes in early-season tournaments have fared better, with the win over Pittsburgh in the 2022-23 Legends Classic and the upset over UNC in the 2019-20 Battle 4 Atlantis.
One Big Question: Is Michigan’s athleticism enough on its own?
Half of Virginia Tech’s top six players by minutes are new to the team, and clearly this roster is still finding its bearings. The Hokies could really use Hysier Miller, but the point guard was dismissed before the season due to his gambling scandal while at Temple. Three straight games of under 1.00 PPP speak to their offensive struggles, and though this is a Power Five opponent, Michigan should have the size and athletic advantage. With no dominant presence in the paint, both Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin should be able to capitalize with the ball and potentially on the offensive glass as well.
Maybe it was just an off night against Jacksonville, but as we have seen over the last two seasons, bad efforts against mid-major teams typically spells a problem when facing higher-quality opponents. Michigan has the athletes to really test this cobbled-together roster. Most of the issues this year have been self-inflicted, and the only way this one gets uncomfortable is if the Wolverines continue to shoot themselves in the foot. Playing aggressive, open basketball is likely to turn this game into a contest where Virginia Tech cannot keep up.
One Thing to Watch: Hectic-ball continues
Similar to Tarleton State, this is another game between teams that give the ball up easily and force a bunch of turnovers themselves. The Hokies are pretty low in steal numbers, but rank in the top-10 of other turnovers, which is similar to Michigan’s own numbers. Meanwhile, both offenses are in the 300s in protecting the ball on offense, suggesting this might be a little sloppy, especially played on a neutral site during the holiday week. The Wolverines were more controlled against Tarleton State, but one game does not make a trend.
Chaos would seem to benefit Michigan, as May continues to encourage a fast tempo and opportunistic mindset. Live-ball turnovers are going to lead to easy baskets the other way, and Virginia Tech was straight-up terrible protecting the ball against the only quality opponent it has faced (Penn State). With a sub-200 ranking against two-pointers, I think the Wolverines are going to have a field day attacking the basket on fast breaks in transition. This might be an ACC opponent, but this is far from a quality team; Michigan needs to take care of business and advance to the championship game.