Michigan is in freefall while Michigan State is working through Year 1 of a rebuild. Saturday night’s contest comes with far less excitement than a normal year, but maybe a drop in intensity would be welcome. Our game preview for the latest installment in the rivalry:
For the first time in 16 years, the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans will meet as unranked opponents. This game is absolutely deserving of a Big Ten Network airing — though not at all something that should be played under the lights — as the season is essentially over already for both schools before the calendar hit November. While this was always going to be the case for the Spartans, without Michigan playing well at all, this game has lost its luster.
Still, as is tradition with this rivalry, the fear of losing overwhelms any potential joy from winning. State would certainly love to snag a victory here and use it to build upon as it rebuilds under Jonathan C. Smith, even if that means much less given the Wolverines’ struggles. Avoiding giving their rivals that satisfaction is all there really is to play for Saturday, which is not a great feeling. Gulp.
Michigan State Spartans (4-3, 2-2) at Michigan Wolverines (4-3, 2-2)
Date & Time: Saturday, Oct. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: BTN
Smith’s tenure started 3-0 before three straight losses to Boston College, Ohio State, and Oregon. A 32-20 win over Iowa was impressive, though, and a win against Michigan gives this team a shot at bowl eligibility. SP+ has the Spartans 72nd overall with the No. 29 defense but an offense sitting outside the top 100. Meanwhile, Vegas has Michigan favored by about a field goal after nearly halving the opening line. Metrics definitely give the nod to the home team, but that assumes it actually plays up to its talent level…
Last year’s 49-0 beatdown in East Lansing was cathartic after the tunnel assault the year prior. J.J. McCarthy had one of his best games in maize and blue, threading dimes all over the field. Two years ago was — wait for it — yet another night game in Ann Arbor, with a pretty boring contest preceding the brutality after the game. Expect this one to resemble more of that 2022 matchup that featured more combined field goals than touchdowns.
What now?
In one sense, it really does not matter who Michigan starts at quarterback. All three options (four, if we reach Jadyn Davis time?) have clear limitations, and multiple times this season the player who started the game has not ended it. My goal is to not go all doom-and-gloom with each of the last five previews, but there is not a lot more that can even be said about the quarterback position, which controls the whole offense, which in turn determines the fate of this team.
I think the solution has to be (finally) doubling down on the running game. Kalel Mullings had a strong game against Illinois and Donovan Edwards has had success on limited carries over the last few. The offensive line shuffling did not substantially change things, but I still trust the run blocking more than pass protection. Yes, Edwards did fumble, but I believe in the running backs more than the quarterbacks when it comes to ball security.
State is just slightly above average against Power Four opponents in yards per rush and yards per pass attempt, so might as well go with the offense’s strength. Traditionally this has been a solid defensive line, but some outgoing transfers have left it as nothing special. Iowa ran for 5.8 YPC last week and there is no reason Mullings and Edwards cannot do that if given the chance, even without much threat of a passing attack.
Excitement either way
The arrival of Aidan Chiles was a huge deal for State, and while he has been far from perfect, the 19-year-old still figures to be a big part of the future in East Lansing. Chiles is extremely boom or bust — he has six touchdowns to nine interceptions, keeping plays alive with his legs and taking shots downfield, leading to either huge gains or ugly turnovers. For a rebuilding team, this might not be the end of the world, as hoisting it up for Nick Marsh is probably the offense’s best chance.
A big reason for State’s mediocre offensive metrics is a nondescript run game, though both Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter averaged over 5.0 YPC last weekend. However, Michigan’s defensive line is still this team’s strength, and as long as it contains Chiles I do not see the Spartans having a ton of success on the ground. Given the nature of Michigan’s losses and the brashness of this quarterback, I think this could be a pretty pass-heavy approach.
Unfortunately, this could set up to be another effort that feels extremely frustrating. In the past two games, the defense has not played terribly, but mistakes have been costly and come at the worst times. The Michigan offense is definitely doing the defense no favors, but it does feel like Wink Martindale is adjusting a bit more to his personnel (and their limitations). Is that going to be enough? Statistically I think so, but it will all come down to how back-breaking any slip-ups end up being.
Avoid the script
Perhaps the biggest blemish during Jim Harbaugh’s time as head coach was his 5-4 record against the Spartans. Conversely, Michigan’s rival always come into this game prepared with weird things and a clear desire for vengeance, and that could mean trickery all over the place. The last three ugly seasons for Michigan (2014, 2017, 2020) all included a loss to State, regardless of how its own season ended up.
The outcome Saturday probably comes down to whether Chiles’ yolo-ness ends up in picks or scores; he will have no fear challenging the Wolverines’ young defensive backs, especially with Will Johnson banged up. For the Michigan offense, I hope it is a run-heavy approach, but I certainly am curious to see what happens at quarterback. Maybe Davis Warren gets a chance to redeem himself, or maybe it is clear that all three options are hopeless. No idea what to predict here — at this point, the unexpected is very welcome.