The official unofficial Big Ten poll of conference media members was released today, and Michigan was picked to finish 9th in the conference.
Purdue was picked to win the league with 20 of 33 first-place votes and 572 points overall. Indiana (7), UCLA (2), Illinois (2), Michigan State (1), and Ohio State (1) also received first-place votes.
A full writer-by-writer breakdown of the polling results can be found here . The “official unofficial” poll exists because the conference’s official media poll doesn’t release a complete ranking of teams. Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch and Zach Osterman of the Indy Star conducted the poll this year, which features at least one beat writer from every school in the 33-person panel.
Michigan was ranked as high as 5th and as low as 16th by the panel. Here’s a rundown of where each poll participant voted for Michigan:
- 5th: Richey, Couch, Moore
- 6th: Werner, Bozich, Quinn, Burkhardt, Austin, Sauber, Neubert, Woods
- 7th: Greenberg, Fonseca
- 8th: Gerbo, Fuller, Hansen, Vrooman
- 9th: Washut, Spungin, Helwagen
- 10th: Osterman, Stevens, Crepea
- 11th: Leistikow, Huston, Allen, McCleary
- 12th: Tachman, Jardy, Carino, Stewart
- 13th:
- 14th:
- 15th:
- 16th: James
The panel named Purdue’s Braden Smith as Preseason Player of the Year, and he received 27 votes. No other player in the conference received more than 2 Player of the Year votes.
The All-Big Ten First Team features Smith, Payton Sandfort, Oumar Ballo, Bruce Thornton, and Dylan Harper. Jackson Shelstad, Ace Baldwin Jr., Great Osobor, Ace Bailey and Dawson Garcia make up the second team.
Michigan’s Vlad Goldin finished 16th in All-Big Ten voting.
Ballo was selected as Transfer of the Year, receiving 17 of 33 votes, while Goldin earned four votes in that category.
Dylan Harper (19.5 voters) edged out Ace Bailey (12.5 votes) and Kasparas Jakucionis (1 vote) for Freshman of the Year honors.
The complete predicted order of finish is as follows (first-place votes in parenthesis)
Standings (first-place votes in parenthesis)
1. Purdue, 572 (20)
2. Indiana, 549 (7)
3. UCLA, 510 (2)
4. Illinois, 458 (2)
5. Michigan State, 448 (1)
6. Oregon, 412
7. Rutgers, 391
8. Ohio State, 369 (1)
9. Michigan, 342
10. Maryland, 263
11. Iowa, 249
T-12 Wisconsin, 212
T-12 Nebraska, 212
14. USC, 196
15. Washington, 158
16. Northwestern, 153
17. Penn State, 87
18. Minnesota, 62
One helpful way to analyze the preseason poll is to plot the voting points and look for tiers.
By my eyes, those tiers fall something like this:
- Tier 1 (500+): Purdue, Indiana, UCLA
- Tier 2 (300+):
- A: Illinois, Michigan State
- B: Oregon, Rutgers, Ohio State, Michigan
- Tier 3 (100+):
- A: Maryland, Iowa
- B: Wisconsin, Nebraska, USC, Washington, Northwestern
- Tier 4 (Sub 100): Penn State, Minnesota
Player of the year
Braden Smith, Purdue (27)
Also receiving votes: Oumar Ballo, Indiana, Ace Bailey, Rutgers (2); Kobe Johnson, UCLA, Payton Sandfort, Iowa (1).
Freshman of the year
Dylan Harper, Rutgers (19.5)
Also receiving votes: Ace Bailey, Rutgers (12.5); Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois (1).
Transfer of the year
Oumar Ballo, Indiana (17)
Also receiving votes: Great Osobor, Washington, Myles Rice, Indiana (4); Vlad Goldin, Michigan (3); Kylan Boswell, Illinois, (2); Tyler Bilodeau, UCLA, Ja’Kobe Gillespie, Maryland, Saint Thomas, USC (1).
First team
- Braden Smith, Purdue (64)
- Payton Sandfort, Iowa (48)
- Oumar Ballo, Indiana (47)
- Bruce Thornton, Ohio State (34)
- Dylan Harper, Rutgers (32)
Second team
- Jackson Shelstad, Oregon (30)
- Ace Baldwin Jr., Penn State (26)
- Great Osobor, Washington (26)
- Ace Bailey, Rutgers (25)
- Dawson Garcia, Minnesota (23)
Also receiving votes
Brooks Barnhizer, Northwestern, Malik Reneau, Indiana (19); Mackenzie Mgbako and Myles Rice, Indiana (13); Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois (12); Vlad Goldin, Michigan (11); Desmond Claude, USC, Julian Reese, Maryland (7); Dylan Andrews, UCLA (6); Brice Williams, Nebraska (5); Jaden Akins, Michigan State, Kylan Boswell, Illinois (4); Xavier Booker, Michigan State, Kobe Johnson, UCLA (3); Tyler Bilodeau, UCLA, Frankie Fidler, Michigan State, Owen Freeman, Iowa, Ja’Kobe Gillespie, Maryland, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Indiana, Saint Thomas, USC (2); Meechie Johnson, Ohio State, Fletcher Loyer, Purdue, Sebastian Mack, UCLA (1).
Note: Players received two points for a first-team vote and one for a second-team vote.
My Ballot
I was one of two voters who picked UCLA to win the league. Last year there was only one choice for league favorites with minimal debate required, but this year feels far more wide open at the top. I have no qualms about picking Purdue at the top of the pile — they have the league’s best coach and preseason Player of the Year — but I think we’ll have a more open conference race this year.
My First Team All-Big Ten ballot had three first-teamers (Smith, Sandfort, and Harper) and two second-teamers (Bailey and Shlestad). My second-team ballot included two players who made the second team (Baldwin and Osobor), along with Brooks Barnhizer, Myles Rice, and Vlad Goldin. I went with Ace Bailey as Freshman of the Year and Vlad Goldin as Transfer of the Year.
1. UCLA (+2)
For me, this pick is about UCLA’s depth of talent. The Bruins had a disappointing year last season but return foundational pieces like Dylan Andrews, Sebastian Mack, Lazar Stefanovic, and Aday Mara while adding talented transfers like Kobe Johnson, Eric Dailey Jr., Tyler Bilodeau, William Kyle III, Skyy Clark, and Dominick Harris. McDonald’s All-American freshman guard Trent Perry is just icing on the cake.
There are a lot of players to keep happy, and maybe not an obvious All-Big Ten First Teamer, but Mick Cronin has the most impressive two-deep in the conference to work with.
2. Purdue (-1)
How do you bet against the best player and coach in the conference? Purdue deserves to be picked near the top of the league until we have a reason not to. Braden Smith is one of the best ball screen facilitators in the country, and young, talented pieces like Trey Kaufman-Renn, Cam Heide, and Myles Colvin should be ready to take a significant step forward.
3. Oregon (+3)
A second Pac-12 team in my top three, the Ducks have been plagued by bad injury luck over the last few years but have a very enticing roster. Jackson Shelstad could be one of the best sophomores in the entire country and his supporting cast is very strong.
High-major transfers like TJ Bamba (the epitome of a post-hype sleeper) and Bradon Angel add crucial experience. And don’t forget that Kwame Evans Jr. is a former McDonald’s All-American who is back for a sophomore season, which is always a key breakout indicator.
4. Indiana (-2)
Indiana didn’t have sufficient guard play last year, and that was enough to derail the entire season. Enter Myles Rice and Kanaan Carlyle, two talented West Coast guards who should solidify things in the backcourt. It’s impossible to argue against Indiana’s talent level, even if certain pieces might not be your favorite style or flavor.
The Hoosiers should be very good, but the three programs picked ahead of them have talented rosters with better fit, and better coaching.
5. Rutgers (+2)
The Scarlet Knights have the duo everyone is waiting to see: Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper. The upside is off the charts if things fall into place around them, and I think Steve Pikiell did a solid job of constructing a transfer class to complement the talented freshman class.
6. Michigan (+3)
Michigan finished 9th in the poll, but at least two voters picked the Wolverines in every spot from 5th through 12th, with one extra pegging the Wolverines down at 16th. I had Michigan at sixth, where they received the most (eight) votes.
I think that wide voter spread feels right for a team and program in a total reboot. I can see the vision and am willing to buy stock, but it takes a lot of trust when we haven’t seen the coaches and players together on the floor.
7. Illinois (-3)
Illinois is another “trust” pick because Brad Underwood completely rebuilt his roster in the offseason. Underwood has earned that trust, but I was more hesitant to pick the Illini near the top of the pile because of how reliant they’ll be on youth and newcomers including Kasparas Jakucionis, Will Riley, Morez Johnson and Tomislav Ivišić.
Illinois has tremendous upside, but international prospects and freshmen aren’t a path to a high floor in 2024.
8. Ohio State
Ohio State is one of the most difficult teams in the league for me to project. On paper, the roster is great. Bruce Thornton and Meechie Johnson are a dynamic scoring duo in the backcourt, Aaron Bradshaw and Sean Stewart are former McDonald’s All-Americans in the frontcourt, and Micah Parrish is a sensible link between the two groups as a three-and-D wing.
However, the roster has made sense on paper for a few years now, and the results haven’t followed. Firing Chris Holtmann to hire Jake Diebler from the same staff is the sort of move that will leave me skeptical until proven otherwise.
9. Michigan State (-4)
Michigan State loses three starters, including Tyson Walker and Malik Hall, from last year’s roster. Jeremy Fears Jr. (back from injury) and Frankie Fidler are the key additions, along with a handful of talented freshmen. I understand the fit with Fidler and think his ability to come off screens as a shooter will fit naturally into Michigan State’s offense, but it feels like a lot of things have to go right for this team to be as good as last year, let alone better.
Can Jaden Akins finally break out after years of staying in a similar role? Is Jeremy Fears Jr. one of the better point guards in the league? Is Xavier Booker a sophomore breakout? Can Frankie Fidler transition from the Summit League to the Big Ten?
There are no sure things and plenty of questions to figure out. I’m confident that some of these X-factors will break in MSU’s direction, but maybe not enough to make them a contender.
10. Iowa (+1)
I’m one spot high on Iowa, but I think I might still be too low on the Hawkeyes. Payton Sandfort will score a lot of points in a way that Fran McCaffery’s best player always does. Owen Freeman is a breakout sophomore hiding in plain sight. Drew Thelwell makes sense as a point guard addition and Brock Harding should take a step forward. Josh Dix started to turn the corner last season, and even Seydou Traore is a sensible addition at the four, which adds just a bit of grit to Iowa’s rotation.
11. Maryland (-1)
This is another team that has upward mobility, but it is hard to see the vision after watching last year’s disappointment. Ja’Kobi Gillespie looks like one of the better transfers in the league despite not getting a ton of hype. He might not be better than Jahmir Young, but he’ll play a key role.
Add in a McDonald’s All-American big man in Derik Queen and an elite shooter in Selton Miguel, and I think there are some pieces to work with here. I’m not sure about the two bigs fitting together, and I’m not convinced that Deshawn Harris-Smith can break out after struggling through a tough freshman year.
12. Nebraska
Nebraska did a good job of making sensible roster additions in the portal in the offseason, and Fred Hoiberg has the program headed in the right direction. This team is going to be competitive this year, but Reink Mast made last year’s team special, and he’s out for the year with an injury.
13. Northwestern (+3)
It’s hard to project Northwestern without Boo Buie, but I’m incredibly high on Brooks Barnhizer’s potential and think that this group has a higher floor than some others.
14. USC
Eric Musselman has proven that he can take a touted group of transfers to an Elite Eight … or to a 6-12 conference finish. The fit feels clunky here, and the lack of frontcourt athleticism is a major concern.
15. Wisconsin (-3)
This might be too low on the Badgers, but Big Ten play has turned into a slog for a program that used to devour the conference. Wisconsin finished 3-8 to close the regular season last year and now loses AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn. John Blackwell is a nice piece, but it’s hard to see enough offensive firepower on this roster.
16. Washington (-1)
I don’t feel great about betting against Danny Sprinkle because he’s won almost everywhere he’s been, but the league is deep! The gap between Washington and the three or four teams ahead of them is much smaller than the gap between the two final teams.
17. Penn State
Well over half of the coaches in the Big Ten would take Ace Baldwin Jr. as their starting point guard tomorrow, but he doesn’t have enough help.
18. Minnesota
The portal hasn’t been kind to Ben Johnson and Minnesota and this roster is mostly made up of mid-major players to team up with Dawson Garcia.
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