Like with Texas last season, Michigan’s September showdown with Oklahoma will set the tone for the rest of the year:
After a few seasons of extremely boring non-conference slates, the Michigan Wolverines are back to playing top-tier opponents. When the Wolverines scheduled home-and-homes against the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners back in 2014, both blue bloods were still members of the Big XII. Now, the stakes are even higher after their move to the SEC (and the evolving landscape of college football), which is exactly what programs like Michigan should be embracing.
2024 was always going to be a year of transition, and even at the time it felt odd that Michigan was ranked No. 10 when Texas came to town in Week 2. The Wolverines will have slightly lower expectations when they travel to Norman in 2025’s second week of play, but this game still has massive ramifications. A few thoughts on the (non-Sherrone Moore potential suspension) similarities and differences between these two massive early contests.
Again: Setting the tone
Michigan lost Jim Harbaugh, J.J. McCarthy, and all sorts of starters to the NFL after winning the national championship, leaving Moore and company with a difficult task in 2024. After Texas loomed games against USC, Washington, Oregon, and Ohio State, with Illinois and Indiana turning out much better than expected. While this was always going to be a gauntlet, it was clear following Week 2 that the Wolverines were clearly outmatched for what laid ahead.
This season, the schedule looks a bit more favorable, but the early blue blood showdown will again say a lot about how the season might transpire. A win against a likely ranked SEC opponent on the road would inspire all sorts of confidence and significantly raise the ceiling for Moore’s second season. A loss, though, would cast doubt about the state of the rebuild, and may serve as an omen for more struggles ahead. A non-conference defeat would not prevent Michigan from achieving any of its goals, but do not be surprised to look back and see that the signs were clear from the start should there be any falter.
New: Continued stability
Last season’s game against Texas was more or less a disaster, especially defensively. Even the most optimistic knew the offense would be limited under Davis Warren, but the defense was supposed to be Michigan’s strength. Instead, the Longhorns were up 24-3 at halftime, as Quinn Ewers ended the day 24-for-36 for 246 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
That was the old Wink Martindale…hopefully. Even with so many top defenders off to the NFL, the system in Ann Arbor is continuing onward. Week 2 of 2025 is not about a coordinator figuring out his personnel and tinkering with his scheme; this time, it is carrying forward the success from Columbus and Tampa and entering into Oklahoma with eyes wide open. That stability defensively could be a big boost for the in-flux offense, instead of compounding the problem like last year.
Again: Under center
Remember the weird quarterback rumors last August? All reports pointed to Warren seriously contending for the job, despite the conversation focusing on Jack Tuttle and Alex Orji for much of the offseason. Nevertheless, it was Warren who won the start against Fresno State and subsequently against Texas. It was not a great day for (the temporary) QB1, with two picks and a late touchdown, leaving the quarterback battle far from settled.
The names are different, but the vibe feels similar heading into this fall. We will see if Bryce Underwood takes the job from Week 1, but with Mikey Keene’s injury, it feels like the freshman phenom is on track to get the first reps against New Mexico, and like Warren, should probably carry that into Week 2 as well. A rough showing in Norman could start raising some questions, though, making this huge pivot point for the signal caller. Moore would be smart to give Underwood a long leash, but if his stat line looks like Warren’s against Texas, it could be another year of quarterback rotation.
New: Opposition trajectory
Texas arrived in Ann Arbor with huge ambitions, and in hindsight Michigan was just a small step in that path. The Longhorns went 11-1 in the regular season, steamrolling plenty of quality opponents and making it to the SEC Championship Game and CFP Semifinals. Maybe Week 11 Michigan would have put up more of a fight, but this was a locked-in team that was just in a much different place that the Wolverines in early September.
2025 is not quite there. The Sooners are getting some preseason love like Michigan, in large part due to the arrival of John Mateer, but do not expect either team to look like a true CFP contender in Week 2. Oklahoma did a good job improving over the offseason, getting impact players like Jaydn Ott out of the portal in addition to the talented Mateer, but this puzzle is still coming together. Even on the road, this game features rosters in a more similar place, and that could be the difference that allows the Wolverines to get the big early win this time around.