Elite prospects and dramatic recruiting wins yield all sorts of results. Michigan needs five-star QB Bryce Underwood to reset the standard:
One of the best parts of college athletics is the hope for the future, especially when it comes to recruiting. With fans now able to track prospects years before they arrive on campus, recruiting has evolved into a sport of its own, mixing numbers, strategy, and daydreaming. The off-field element of college football has never felt bigger.
For the Michigan Wolverines , recruiting has long been framed around finding and developing gems like Mike Sainristil, Kenneth Grant, and Mason Graham, players who may not have been household names on Signing Day but became superstars before leaving Ann Arbor. Still, bringing in elite talent definitely matters, and Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall player in the 2025 class, changes the narrative for Michigan in a major way.
Quarterbacks offer a floor
Quarterbacks naturally carry the most weight in recruiting, and Michigan’s track record with five-star signal-callers has been mixed. Chad Henne was the rare true freshman starter and overall was a positive contributor, though he never fully matched his ranking. Ryan Mallett (RIP) never found his stride in Ann Arbor, but put together a solid college career at Arkansas. J.J. McCarthy may not have had mammoth stats, but he will forever be a Michigan legend.
This small sample size of three does show a clear truth: five-star quarterbacks offer a high floor. Even when they do not meet the wildest expectations, rarely do they bust like other positions. Obviously, fans are hoping — and maybe even expecting — Underwood to break the record books, but the more realistic perspective is to bank on the baseline and enjoy anything extra.
One is the loneliest number
Underwood is just the second No. 1 overall player to sign with Michigan, joining Rashan Gary (2016). Gary remains a complicated case, earning back-to-back First-Team All-Big Ten honors and playing a key role on the impressive 2016 and 2018 defenses, but never becoming the standout talent many envisioned. Still, he was far from a bust and was aptly drafted in the first half of the first round.
Top-ranked recruits carry enormous pressure, but one advantage Underwood has over Gary is that quarterbacks typically pan out more consistently. Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young were college superstars, while Quinn Ewers had more of a Gary-like impact (with Arch Manning still TBD). I like Underwood’s chances of adding his name to this list of successes.
Mitten State mania
Perhaps what makes Underwood’s commitment most special is where he is from. The Wolverines have typically fared well when they land five-stars from within Michigan. Lamarr Woodley, Brandon Graham, and Will Johnson were the top-ranked in-state prospects in their class and all delivered in a huge way. Donovan Peoples-Jones was underused, but still had a pretty decent collegiate career. Kevin Grady is the outlier, but on the whole, elite recruits from Michigan have delivered in Ann Arbor.
Local stars often understand the rivalries, the culture, and the pressure. They wear the maize and blue with deeper pride, and have unsurprisingly performed well at Michigan. Underwood is not just a superstar quarterback — he represents the blend of elite talent and local roots that the Wolverines desire to concoct. History suggests this combination will yield plenty of dividends.
Hype can mean just about anything
Of course, all of this is just background noise the moment Underwood steps on campus, as what precedes Signing Day means very little. Dax Hill flipped from Alabama to Michigan and became a first-rounder; Aubrey Solomon turned into nothing more than a funny story. Jabrill Peppers was the ultra-hyped prospect who became a Heisman finalist; Sam McGuffie was a viral sensation who transferred within a year.
Recruiting sagas are emotional and captivating, but rarely indicate much about how a player will actually perform. Underwood arrives with a historic level of hype, but fireworks quickly dissipate into the smoky sky. The precedent is there for a phenomenal career, but there are plenty of cautionary tales as well. Should he succeed, Underwood will become the new bar by which every future prospect will be measured.