Michigan Basketball nearly tripled last year’s win total, defied expectations and flirted with greatness, all while walking a tightrope of mediocrity. Now losers of three straight, is this season over? Is there a chance for a run? Or does it matter either way?
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Michigan Basketball’s fine line between ‘We are so back’ and ‘It’s so F-ing Over’
Following an 8-24 season, it was nearly impossible for this year to have been any worse for the Michigan Wolverines . Juwan Howard’s five-year tenure in Ann Arbor bottomed out with nine straight losses and winning as many games as the football team post-Christmas. FEMA was called, but they were too busy preparing for Adrian Brody’s Oscars speech. Instead, Florida Atlantic head coach Dusty May was sent in to build from the rubble.
Now, if I told you before the season Michigan basketball would be 22-9 entering the Big Ten Tournament , you would have been overjoyed. “May the Miracle Worker!” While not quite walking on water, May is on the verge of tripling the previous season’s win total and had the Wolverines in the hunt for the Big Ten regular season title entering the final week of the season. While true, these numbers also omit necessary context.
The difference between good and great teams is that great teams consistently play to their level, not the opponent’s. A championship standard is “throat meet boot,” while good teams only occasionally introduce their soles. These good teams offer flashes of greatness, but more regularly play to the level of their opponent. The Wolverines are simply a good team — a good team that could very easily have five or more losses.
Michigan is 8-4 in one-possession games and 11-4 in games decided by four points or less this season. Clutch, yes, but winning is not sustainable when nearly half the season is decided on the final possession. Playing the “what if” game is dangerous and largely unproductive, but when luck is constantly swinging in Michigan’s favor in high-variance moments, it is logical to consider the other side of the pendulum when the law of averages inevitably becomes a factor.
If Ohio State doesn’t air-ball a last-possession runner, Nimari Burnett doesn’t hit the biggest shot of his career, or Purdue’s Braden Smith doesn’t miss the game-winning heave by inches, do we view this team and turnaround differently? Instead of May the Miracle Worker, are we viewing Dusty as more average? “Mid-May?” This team has been tight-roping the mediocre divide for two months and riding the flow of the fates the entire season.
Following a rocky two-game skid with losses to Arkansas and Oklahoma, the team responded in emphatic fashion early in the season. Michigan smoked Purdue-Fort Wayne by more than 30 points and beat the hell out of Western Kentucky, nearly doubling them up in points, 112-64. Being mid-majors, fans weren’t hanging banners, although optimism was returning.
Beginning conference play five days later, the Wolverines beat USC by 11 and UCLA by 19 in a three-day span during an NBA-style West Coast road trip. Once back home, the Wolverines kept the boot down, rolling through Washington, 91-75. Michigan’s defense had become stifling and the team was shooting 44.4 percent from deep as a team.
“We are so back!”
With a tidal wave of momentum and Danny Wolf garnering NBA buzz, the team was starting to resemble a wagon. Vlad Goldin found his footing in the Big Ten. Tre Donaldson had become a sniper from deep and a floor general leading this team with heady play and leadership. With the world at their fingertips, the Wolverines immediately dropped two of their next three games, and the momentum evaporated.
The first defeat came to lowly Minnesota on a half-court buzzer-beater in overtime. Them’s the breaks when playing to the level of your opponent. The second loss came in the form of a 27-point ass-kicking in West Lafayette — an embarrassing loss that could have been even worse after the Wolverines were down 44-15 in the first half. It was like watching Mike Tyson knock out Michael Spinks in the first round and continue to beat him up for another hour.
“It’s so f-ing over!”
After double-checking that Howard had not returned to the sidelines, the Purdue pulverizing made May’s success feel like a house of cards. Maybe this style of play could work at lower levels, but not in the Big Ten. Similar to how Paul Mescal can play the lead in any indie movie but possessed the charisma of a Cialis commercial in Gladiator II.
With the sky starting to fall around him, May reshuffled the deck, refocused his team and found a way to beat Penn State three days later. And then beat Rutgers in Piscataway. And then knock off Oregon and Indiana. And then beat Purdue in the rematch. And then re-planted the flag in Columbus as Michigan beat the Buckeyes on the road.
“We are so back!”
Out of nowhere, the Wolverines had won six in a row. The team had consistently found a way in late-game scenarios despite not playing or maintaining any semblance of a consistent standard. This late in the season, Michigan appeared to be the cardiac kids — late-game savants who could only reach their potential with the pressure of defeat bearing down on them. That was the case until the pendulum swung again.
With the fate of the Big Ten hanging in the balance. Michigan finished 2-4 in its final six games, including dropping both games to Michigan State and losing three in a row to finish the regular season. The Wolverines’ two victories came by a 2.5-point average margin, while the four losses were much more decisive coming by an average margin of 14 points.
This team has gone ice cold from the perimeter, turns the ball over at the highest rate in the Big Ten (my friend Shavon said Tre Donaldson passes the ball like he forgets defenders have arms, and I cannot unsee it), and rebounds worse than Jon Favreau in Swingers.
“It’s so f-ing over!”
Entering the Big Ten Tournament this week, this team still has a chance to swing the pendulum one last time. Reinvigorate its intensity on the defensive end, find the three-point stroke offensively, and go on an unexpected run like so many teams before them.
When Michigan plays its best — which has seldom occurred this season — this team is one of the hardest teams in the country to beat. When they don’t play their best, the Wolverines are still an annoying matchup nightmare with a pair of 7-footers, including a stubborn Russian in the paint who is trying to singlehandedly drag this team to success.
But even if this season ends with a whimper rather than a bang, this season was still a success. Not trying to be the “glass half full, hell of a season, boys” guy over here, but the Wolverines won eight games last season.
E-I-G-H-T.
May’s first year in Ann Arbor was never supposed to be anything more than a return to normalcy, a building block, and it vastly exceeded expectations. Fair or unfair, those expectations fluctuated at times throughout the year, but the ultimate goal of returning the program to respectability and viable conference contention was accomplished.
Although it feels like it’s so f-ing over and could again in the coming weeks, this team went from its worst season in program history to 22 wins in a year with a completely overhauled roster and a head coach in his first season in a Power Four conference.
Perhaps that falls short of a miracle worker, but make no mistake about it — we are so back.