With Yaxel Lendeborg still undecided on his future, we examined how high Michigan Basketball’s ceiling is both with and without him:
Dusty May routinely made headlines in the early college basketball offseason by getting the No. 2 overall transfer portal class in the country, including the No. 1 overall player in UAB’s Yaxel Lendeborg out of UAB. However, it’s not a guarantee he will ever put on a Michigan uniform, as he’s testing the NBA waters and looking for a guaranteed contract.
Yesterday, we examined just how much NIL money it may take to entice Lendeborg to stay in college. Today, we’ll focus on the implications of his decision on the Michigan roster. What’s the ceiling with him on the roster? What’s the ceiling without him?
Let’s start with the easier of the two scenarios. With Lendeborg on the roster, this is a team that can compete for a national championship. Torvik currently projects Michigan as the No. 4 team in the country. He projects the Wolverines to be in the top-seven in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, a major barometer for championship aspirations. Torvik has the Wolverines trailing only Houston, Purdue and Duke.
May and company would likely be looking at a nine-man rotation with Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney and L.J. Cason manning the backcourt, Lendeborg, Will Tschetter, Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett on the wing, and Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. at center. A projected starting five at this point would likely be Cadeau, Burnett, Gayle, Lendeborg and Johnson. However, I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Cason pushes one of the veterans out of the starting lineup by season’s end.
Lendeborg would likely be the primary scorer, with a lethal pick-and-roll game with Cadeau very possible. It would allow Burnett and Gayle to continue to be secondary scorers who aren’t tasked with primary scoring duties. It also allows Tschetter’s role to fluctuate drastically, depending on the coaching staff’s preferences. May could theoretically play a huge lineup with Tschetter at the three, Lendeborg and the four and Johnson/Mara at the five.
The much harder scenario to forecast is what Michigan looks like without him in the fold.
Without Lendeborg, Torvik has Michigan dropping down the 11th in the country. He actually sees the Wolverines see a very slight uptick in defensive efficiency, but a drastic drop in offensive efficiency.
Michigan still has a solid group of players without Lendeborg, but the realistic goals may shift from a national championship to a conference championship.
May would still likely use a nine-man rotation, as outlined above. However, freshman Winters Grady would likely be the main beneficiary of the extra minutes available. Tschetter would likely slide into the starting spot at the four, and while he is excellent at playing his role, we saw what happens in 2023-24 when he is overused. He is at his best as a change-of-pace guy off the bench.
The pick-and-roll would still be a staple of the Michigan offense, but I would expect Johnson to be the primary roll man in Lendeborg’s absence. We would certainly see an uptick in alley-oops, but the pick-and-pop game would likely disappear entirely as neither Johnson or Mara are threats from deep.
No matter what Lendeborg decides, it has been a smashing success of an offseason. After essentially building a roster from scratch in May’s first season and then losing Area 50-1 after one year, it was always going to be an uphill climb this offseason. However, the fact we’re discussing what type of championship aspirations Michigan should have is a testament to May’s success in the portal and the recruiting trail, and that is regardless of Lendeborg’s final decision.