Michigan Basketball enters the NCAA Tournament as the No. 25 team on KenPom’s ratings. Based on how the last five teams at that rank have entered March Madness, the Wolverines may be en route for an early exit:
Heading into the NCAA Tournament, the Michigan Wolverines are ranked No. 25 overall on KenPom’s rankings. Their score is 22.28 with a ranking of No. 47 on offense and No. 14 on defense.
This varies each season based on how efficient teams are across college basketball. For example, there were only 17 teams with a score of KenPom rating of 20 points or higher by the end of the NCAA Tournament last season. This year, 32 of the 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament score at 20 points or higher. This could change by the end of the season, but it appears this year is much deeper than season’s past.
So instead of seeing where Michigan lines up by its rating, we decided to evaluate the last five NCAA Tournaments and see how the No. 25 team in KenPom was seeded and faired in the Big Dance. The Wolverines’ first-round matchup, UC San Diego, is currently No. 36 with an 18.77 score.
Here are those teams, their seeds, who they played in the NCAA Tournament and how their seasons ended.
2023-24 Gonzaga Bulldogs – No. 5 seed
Gonzaga struggled in the early non-conference, losing games to top-five Purdue and UConn teams, along with losses to Washington, San Diego State and Santa Clara in the first half of the season.
Then the engines turned on, as Mark Few’s team finished winning 13 of their final 14 games. Gonzaga finished the regular season with the No. 20 offense and No. 43 defense per KenPom’s rankings.
Gonzaga entered the NCAA Tournament as a No. 5 seed with a matchup with McNeese State. It was one of the most picked upset games by fans as they set their brackets because the Cowboys finished 30-3 and held a No. 47 ranking on KenPom.
By tipoff, Gonzaga was a 6.5-point favorite and many considered this an upset pick. Instead, the Zags eviscerated McNeese, 86-65, as senior forward Anton Watson nearly posted a triple-double.
Then the Bulldogs tackled a good Kansas team, ranked a No. 4 seed. Again, they won by more than 20 points, 89-68. However, their season came to an end against the Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16.
By the end of the season, Gonzaga ranked No. 12 on KenPom with the No. 5 offense and No. 51 defense.
2022-23 Indiana Hoosiers – No. 4 seed
The Hoosiers finished second in the Big Ten, but were shocked by Penn State in their second game of the Big Ten Tournament . Their early departure left them with a 22-11 record heading into the Big Dance.
KenPom loved the Hoosiers, as they ranked 29th in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency, giving them a 20.81 rating. The committee awarded Indiana with a No. 4 seed, facing a No. 13 Kent State squad that was No. 59 overall on KenPom.
Once again, this was a favorite pick among experts for an upset, as Kent State’s Sincere Carry averaged over 17 points per game and the team shot over 45 percent from the field. The spread was only four points in favor of the Hoosiers.
However, the Hoosiers pounded the interior, as Trayce Jackson-Davis scored 24 points while bringing down 11 boards to help Indiana cruise to a 71-60 victory. Indiana did, however, lose in the Round of 32 to the No. 5 seed Miami Hurricanes, who were on their way to a Final Four appearance.
Indiana finished the season as KenPom’s No. 30 team.
2021-2022 Virginia Tech Hokies – No. 11 seed
This one is a bit of an anomaly, but it also makes sense for a few reasons. The Hokies finished 14-2 in their final 16 games, including an improbable ACC Tournament championship run that saw them beating North Carolina and Duke.
After finishing seventh in the ACC regular season, it was a remarkable turnaround, and Virginia Tech had the No. 18 offense and No. 54 defense on KenPom. The Hokies had a 19.38 overall rating.
Their matchup was with the No. 6 Texas Longhorns, KenPom’s No. 17 overall team. Virginia Tech’s magical run came to a harsh end, as every Texas starter scored in double digits, squashing the Hokies in an 81-70 defeat.
Virginia Tech actually moved up the KenPom rankings despite the early exit, becoming the No. 19 team overall by the end of the NCAA Tournament.
2020-2021 St. Bonaventure Bonnies – No. 9 seed
This season was a weird one and tough for all the metrics and seeding from the committee. With teams missing significant games due to COVID-19, and some of them not being replayed, it was a disaster class for stack ranking.
That may be in part why St. Bonaventure was ranked so highly, going 16-5 in the Atlantic 10 Conference and winning the conference tournament. According to KenPom, St. Bonaventure had the No. 62 offense and No. 16 defense in the country with a 19.14 score.
In the first round, St. Bonaventure had a tough battle against an LSU team that played extremely fast-paced. The Bonnies were actually 1.5-point dogs to LSU, and the Tigers won convincingly, 76-61, thanks to 27 points from guard Cam Thomas.
St. Bonaventure free fell to the No. 32 overall team on KenPom after the loss.
2018-2019 Cincinnati Bearcats – No. 7 seed
The Bearcats won five of their last eight regular season games, but lost twice to Houston in that span, which won the regular season AAC title because of it. But Cincinnati got the last laugh in the AAC Tournament, winning the championship, 69-57, and securing the automatic bid. A classic Mick Cronin team was known for its defense, ranking No. 8 on KenPom to a No. 67 offense and a 19.71 overall rating.
Unfortunately for them, they got a really tough draw with a good Iowa team that finished 22-10 in the regular season and one of the most dominant players in the country, Luka Garza. Cincinnati had no answer for Garza, who scored 20 points as Iowa took control late for a 79-72 victory.
The Bearcats’ run was disappointing, but KenPom still likened them to the No. 29 team in the country.