Rutgers has stars, but Michigan is becoming a true team. The group of transfers heads to Jersey for Saturday’s contest:
Many bracket projections have the Michigan Wolverines as a No. 5 seed right now. Some nights, they look like a team capable of knocking off a No. 1 seed in the Sweet Sixteen; other nights, a 5-12 upset feels far too realistic. Great teams can beat other great teams, but good teams should at least handle lesser competition, which has become a shockingly tough challenge as of late.
The Wolverines will look to correct that in the first of two matchups against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights . Even on the road, this is a game Michigan should be winning comfortably. The schedule gets tougher from here, so securing a routine victory (for once) feels important. While this hopefully will not turn into a nail-biter, Saturday’s game will be nationally televised on FOX — in fact, every weekend contest for the rest of the season will be on either FOX or CBS.
Michigan Wolverines (15-5, 7-2) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (11-10, 4-6)
Date & Time: Saturday, Feb. 1, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Jersey Mike’s Arena, Piscataway, NJ
TV/Streaming: FOX
Rutgers made headlines by bringing in two five-star freshmen this season, but that has not translated into better results. Ace Bailey is averaging over 20 points per game, and Dylan Harper contributes 18 points and four assists per contest. However, Harper has been dealing with an injury, and even when healthy, the duo has not been enough to lift the Scarlet Knights above .500 in Big Ten play.
Still, Rutgers has won three straight in this series after losing 10 of its first 11 meetings with Michigan since joining the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights’ victory in the Second Round of the 2023 Big Ten Tournament effectively sent the Wolverines to the NIT. Rutgers then swept last season’s matchups, winning in both Ann Arbor and Piscataway.
One Big Question: A changing identity?
While Michigan’s defense has not returned to its early-season form, there have been encouraging signs, including a strong showing against Northwestern and a solid finish versus Penn State. The performances against Minnesota and Purdue were forgettable, but with a roster full of transfers, it takes time to establish cohesion. This squad is not going to be anchored by its defense, but in conference play the gap between the two sides of the ball has been smaller than one might expect.
Some of that, however, is due to an offensive downturn. Opponents have adjusted to Michigan’s four-five ball screen action and seem to have figured out Danny Wolf, who has posted an offensive rating above 100 just once (!!) in his last six games. Physical defenses have disrupted the Wolverines, and their inconsistent three-point shooting makes it difficult to trust on a nightly basis. If Michigan can contain Bailey, who just dropped 37 against Northwestern, it could signal that the defense is in fact capable of carrying some games.
One Thing to Watch: The Rise of Donaldson
While Wolf has crashed back down to earth, the baton seems to be passing to Tre Donaldson. The Auburn transfer has had his ups and downs, but performances against USC, UCLA, and Penn State illustrate why Dusty May wanted him in Ann Arbor. Donaldson’s role will be crucial down the stretch, as strong guard play is essential in tight games. Having a steady ball-handler who shoots 40 percent from three — without any fear — is exactly what this team needs.
Rutgers does not force many turnovers, allows a high number of assists, and is below average at defending shots both inside and beyond the arc. If the two-big interplay is not working, Michigan can turn to more traditional ball screens through Donaldson to create offense. If the point guard can keep the ball moving and continue to facilitate the offense, he can help Vlad Goldin thrive and put Wolf in better scoring positions, both of which Michigan will need in order to make a serious push in March.