Michigan basketball looks renewed under Duty May, flashy but a little sloppy to start the year. The non-conference stretch rolls on against Miami OH on Monday:
It took no time at all for Dusty May to put his stamp on the Michigan Wolverines , with his style and profile already remaking this team. A 2-1 start is right on track, and the Wolverines now get a chance to work out more of the kinks this week against their final two mid-major opponents of the season, starting with the Miami RedHawks.
Miami has also begun 2-1 but has yet to face Power Five competition. At 196th in the Kenpom rankings, this team is of similar caliber to Cleveland State. While another 100-point explosion is not the most likely outcome, the RedHawks actually have a lower defensive efficiency (225th) than the Vikings, so nothing is off the table on Monday.
Miami RedHawks (2-1) at Michigan Wolverines (2-1)
Date & Time: Monday, Nov. 18, 6 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: BTN
Like Michigan — and seemingly every program — Miami has a bunch of new faces this season, including Kam Craft who leads the team with 19.0 PPG after transferring from Xavier. As mentioned, the RedHawks have been rough defensively, giving up over 1.10 PPP in their last two games. Miami was picked sixth in the MAC preseason poll after finishing 257th in Kenpom last year with a 15-17 record.
The last time these teams met was in a home-and-home that saw Tommy Amaker win both contests. The Wolverines have mostly taken care of MAC opponents recently, including Eastern Michigan last season…aside from the Central Michigan debacle a couple years ago. Michigan absolutely cannot stumble here, and should not be expected to.
One Big Question: Does explosiveness come with a cost?
Seeing Michigan with the fifth-best effective field goal rate (62.3) in the country is a welcome sight, but the (relatively) blistering pace is perhaps the biggest shock for longtime fans. While the latter certainly helps the former, it cannot be ignored that the Wolverines own one of the very worst turnover rates in the country.
I have postulated — perhaps with a hint of wishful thinking — that this sloppiness would improve as a brand new roster gets more familiar, and while that still may be true, it does appear that the tempo (and subsequent hyper-efficient scoring) will have this persistent downside. Just about every Wolverine is getting in on the turnover barrage, and the method of these giveaways seemingly changes every time. As the team is being asked to play aggressively and impulsively, it looks like turnovers are simply the price.
Miami does not appear to be team that will force a ton on its own, recording a sub-20 percent turnover rate the past two games, and is not a defense that requires anything complex to beat. Will May stay true to his style, or will he tell his troops to calm down a bit, like he did after the completely bizarre first half against TCU? There are arguments both ways; I think I would prefer to see how this team looks while being a little more controlled.
One Thing to Watch: Big deployment
Like against most mid-majors, Michigan will have the size advantage and should be able to feast in the paint. This was the case in the opener, when the Wolverines went 26-for-32 at the rim, with Danny Wolf the main beneficiary. The same cannot be said for Vlad Goldin, though, who has been a little quiet to start the year, as the high-ceiling big is still figuring out life on his new team.
Goldin has not been a negative, but it is clear we have yet to see his true potential. For as well as Wolf has played and as intriguing as two-big sets can be — as well as the extreme length with those two and Sam Walters out there together — I wonder if it makes sense to field a more traditional lineup to build up Goldin’s familiarity. Miami near the bottom of the country inside the arc, giving up 60.5 percent of opponents’ twos. Whether it is Goldin scoring himself or distributing the ball to open teammates, this looks like a great chance to get him his first big game in maize and blue.