Michigan ranks below three Big Ten opponents and comes in at no. 12 in the FPI rankings after winning the National Championship in 2023.
ESPN recently released its college football power index (FPI) ratings. You’ve probably been mulling over them. So have we!
Some things to note about FPI, according to ESPN. They consider four things when developing the rating ahead of a new season. Prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings, and coaching tenure.
Michigan has an FPI of 14.9 ahead of head coach Sherrone Moore’s first season.
Michigan’s FPI rating is no. 12 overall, no. 4 in the Big Ten
The FPI has Georgia at no. 1, followed by Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Missouri, and Florida State at no. 11 rounding out the teams ahead of Michigan.
While you’d expect to see some drop-off this season, it’s still annoying to see Michigan behind Big Ten opponents Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon, along with other teams they beat to win a national championship last season. But when you consider the factors that go into the rating, it’s encouraging to see the Wolverines still in the top 15. For context, the Washington Huskies, who played Michigan in the national championship, sit at no. 31 in the FPI.
When it comes to returning starters, Michigan lost a lot of crucial players on its roster after the 2023 season, including quarterback J.J. McCarthy. The FPI highly values returning quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with experience. In that case, it makes sense why Michigan sits fourth in the Big Ten.
While the defense is returning a bunch of guys with quality reps last season, the offense still has players with more to prove. While there’s speculation Alex Orji will be the next man under center for the Wolverines, it seems like we’ll be waiting until after fall camp for the decision on who’s the next man up at the position.
The Wolverines are also breaking in a new head coach. While Sherrone Moore brings continuity after the loss of Jim Harbaugh, the ratings still calculate some regression under a first-year head coach.
Michigan’s remaining strength of schedule ranks no. 18 nationally, no. 6 in the Big Ten
This FPI measure doesn’t make much sense at first glance. Michigan’s remaining strength of schedule is ranked no. 18. Last year, the Wolverines’ remaining strength of schedule in April was ranked no. 21. According to the FPI, Purdue, UCLA, Washington, Illinois, and Ohio State have tougher schedules than Michigan.
The entire offseason there’s been talk about how tough Michigan’s schedule is this year. Michigan plays Oregon and Texas at home. They’re on the road against Ohio State. Michigan will also host USC and Michigan State.
For teams like Purdue, UCLA, Washington, and Illinois, you can see they have some tough games on their schedule and maybe less talent than the Wolverines.
If you’re trying to make sense of Ohio State’s schedule listed as tougher than Michigan’s here’s something to consider: The Buckeyes have to travel out to Eugene for their game against Oregon. FPI’s game predictions account for how many miles a team has to travel. While Michigan has a difficult schedule they at least get to play Oregon and Texas in the Big House.
Other FPI predictions
Projected Wins & Losses — 8.3-3.9
Chance to win out — 0.7%
Chance to win 6 games — 92.4%
Chance to win conference — 7.3%
Chance of making the playoff — 28.5%
Chance of making the National Championship — 4.0%
Chance to win the National Championship — 1.7%
Predicting Michigan football to go 8-4 seems like the safe pick given all the unknowns on Michigan’s offense. That’s Michigan losing its three toughest games and dropping another, possibly to a team like USC. That also explains why Michigan’s chances of winning the conference are so low.
Michigan should easily make it to a Bowl this post-season, but it’ll be more challenging for the team to appear in the playoff. With the field expanded to 12 teams in 2024, missing the playoffs would be a letdown given all of Michigan’s returning talent on defense and the potential of Michigan’s returning players on offense.
What do you think about Michigan’s FPI rankings? Let us know in the comments!