While Michigan fans may be pleased overall with the results on the field the last few years, there are many things that could have transpired differently. Here’s a look back at some “what if” scenarios in Michigan’s recent football history:
The Michigan football program has had its fair share of success the last few years. Even after a down season in 2024, it’s hard to argue against Michigan being one of (if not the) best programs in the sport over the last handful of years.
Still, despite the success the Wolverines have had, there are plenty of places where things could have gone differently. As fans know, football can be a complicated sport where the mere bounce of the ball in a game can reshape the course of an entire season.
Last week , we took a look back through the recent history of Michigan’s men’s basketball program to see where things could have gone differently, and today we’ll be doing the same for the football program.
What if J.T. Barrett wasn’t given the first down in 2016?
The scene is Columbus, Ohio, Nov. 26, 2016. Up 27-24 in overtime, Michigan needed a stop on fourth-and-one to beat Ohio State for the first time since 2011. On the play, Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett was stopped right at the marker, and upon replay review, was given a first down. The Buckeyes scored a touchdown just one play later and won the game 30-27.
There’s no sense debating the call by the officials at this point, but how would history be different had it gone the other way? For starters, Michigan would have won, finished the season 11-1 overall and booked a trip to the Big Ten Championship to face Wisconsin. We can’t assume the Wolverines would have won, but they did beat the Badgers, 14-7, at the Big House earlier that year.
We can’t say for sure how things would have gone, but at the very least, Jim Harbaugh might have received less flak for being unable to beat the Buckeyes.
What if Michigan lost to Rutgers in 2020?
This will act as an interlude to our next scenario, but fans were likely sweating out the 48-42 overtime victory over Rutgers in 2020, something that could have been a big turning point for the program.
If the Wolverines had lost that game, their record would have fallen to 1-4 and the chances of Harbaugh making out of the season with a job seemed slim. Even by winning the game, he did little to convince fans he deserved to stick around. Nonetheless, Michigan held onto Harbaugh, but it’s fair to wonder how things might be different if it didn’t.
What if Jim Harbaugh left after 2020?
Any way you slice it, the 2020 season was a disaster. The Wolverines went 2-4 and looked uncompetitive in most games. At the time, the criticism of Harbaugh was at its peak. Another part of the equation was Harbaugh didn’t have a long-term contract to keep him in Ann Arbor beyond 2021, only fueling speculation he would soon be out the door.
Instead, Harbaugh signed a contract with a reduced salary, reflective of the underachievement to that point. His return would ultimately spur Michigan on to its major run of success from 2021-23. But how might things have transpired if he did leave?
Well, fans spent the fall and winter of 2020 sorting through potential head coaching candidates. From Luke Fickell to Matt Campbell, fans were envisioning a new future that probably wouldn’t have been so bright. Needless to say, Michigan made the right call in bringing Harbaugh back, as Fickell has underperformed — 13-13 in two seasons at Wisconsin — while Campbell has gone 29-23 at Iowa State since 2020.
What if literally anything went differently in the Fiesta Bowl?
For the truly masochistic fans, I urge you to go back and watch the highlights from Michigan’s loss to TCU in the College Football Playoff. You’ll find countless places where the tide of the game could have turned.
What if Donovan Edwards didn’t get chased down on the first play of the game? What if J.J. McCarthy didn’t throw two pick-sixes? What if Roman Wilson was given a touchdown instead of being ruled down right before the goal line? And what if Kalel Mullings didn’t fumble after that replay review of Wilson’s overturned touchdown? What if anybody could make a tackle on defense? We could go on and on.
The loss marked one of the bigger upsets in the four-team era of the CFP. If the Wolverines had won the game like many experts had predicted them to, they would’ve faced Georgia in the National Championship.
While Michigan might have been a better matchup for Georgia than TCU — it lost to Georgia 65-7 — I still wouldn’t have bet on Michigan to win. While a victory in the Fiesta Bowl would have been great, it probably wouldn’t have given the Wolverines all that much better a shot at winning the National Championship.
What if literally anything went differently in the Rose Bowl?
If the Fiesta Bowl featured many unfortunate events for Michigan, the Rose Bowl featured some favorable ones. What if McCarthy had been intercepted on the first play, or didn’t catch the pass from Edwards on the trick play? What if Michigan hadn’t flawlessly executed it’s legendary fourth-quarter drive? What if Jake Thaw let the ball bounce into the end zone?
As you can see, perhaps the most memorable win from the last five years might not have happened at all. Had the ball not bounced in Michigan’s favor in this game, the program would have been looking at a third straight semifinal exit, and the legacies of Harbaugh and many legendary players like McCarthy, Blake Corum, Mike Sainristil and others would look much different without a national championship on their resumes.
It’s fair to wonder if Harbaugh or any of his players would have opted to try and run it back in 2024 for another shot at a title, but I’ll settle for winning it all in 2023.
What if Michigan didn’t upset Ohio State in 2024?
I guess we’ll never know…