The College Football Playoff’s semifinals are upon us, and two Big Ten programs will look to punch their tickets to the National Championship. Here are some keys and predictions for how the games will go:
The College Football Playoff is down to its final four teams after a series of intriguing games last week. To this point, not all the games have been close, as only one of the first eight was decided by less than 10 points. However, that should change in the semifinal round, as there are two matchups stuffed with storylines.
Another interesting note — all four teams have had to play two games this postseason. They’ve all won a home game in convincing fashion and took down a conference champion. Momentum is rolling for all four teams, but let’s dissect how they should fare in the semifinals.
Penn State vs. Notre Dame (-2)
Capital One Orange Bowl, Thursday Jan. 9, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
If you like defense, this one’s for you, as Penn State and Notre Dame feature the No. 5 and No. 2 ranked defenses nationally, respectively, in points allowed per game. On offense, the teams are also similar, as neither is particularly explosive but both boast strong run games.
For Notre Dame, Riley Leonard might be the X-factor. He’s limited as a passer, but facing a strong defense like Penn State’s, the Irish will need to be a bit more balanced and might need him to make some plays with his arm. Furthermore, while running back Jeremiyah Love should play, he was banged up against Georgia, which is something to monitor.
On defense, Notre Dame’s defensive front held up well against Georgia, but it could still feel the loss of star defensive lineman Rylie Mills. The Irish secondary also shouldn’t have much trouble covering Penn State’s receiver group.
For Penn State, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 221 yards rushing against Boise State. Running the ball should once again be the formula, as Notre Dame’s run defense is good, but not elite, ranked No. 32 nationally in rush yards allowed per game. Penn State’s run defense is in that top tier, ranked No. 8 nationally in rush yards allowed per game. And if Abdul Carter is healthy enough to play, he should help stifle Notre Dame’s run and pass games.
You could really go either way with this one, and the narrow point spread reflects that. I’ll give a slight nod to Penn State thanks to its offensive balance. If either squad has to rely on its quarterback to make plays with their arm, I’d lean Drew Allar.
Prediction: Penn State wins 23-17
Texas vs. Ohio State (-6)
Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Friday Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
The Longhorns are coming off an overtime thriller against Arizona State , while Ohio State has done some dastardly things to its last two opponents, outscoring Tennessee and Oregon by a combined score of 83-38.
For Texas, covering wide receiver Jeremiah Smith might be a good place to start. The superstar freshman has 290 receiving yards in two playoff games and has been the center of Ohio State’s attack. Fortunately, Texas boasts the top corner in the country in Jahdae Baron, as well as star safety Andrew Mukuba, in its secondary. Beyond Smith, receivers Carnell Tate and Emeka Egbuka will be tall tasks in coverage, too. However, the Longhorns do boast the No. 3 defense nationally in pass yards allowed per game, and their run defense is No. 4 in the country in yards allowed per game, which should help corral Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.
On the other side, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers will need the game of his life. He’s been solid in two playoff games thus far, but will need to take it to another level against the Buckeyes. Ohio State has arguably the nation’s best pass rush, which should complicate things, but the Texas offensive line has been strong all year. The Longhorns have been great running the ball late in the year as well, but struggled against Arizona State with just 53 yards on the ground.
If Texas is to win, it could follow a similar script to Michigan by relying on the ground game offensively, but it’ll have to find an answer defensively for Ohio State’s red-hot passing attack. That’s going to be a tall task, and Ohio State should ride its momentum to the title game.