This Michigan basketball season has been quite a ride, and a win over Illinois would show this is truly a new era. Here is our preview for today’s game:
The Michigan Wolverines took their narrow-win motif to the extreme on Thursday night, needing a last-second heave from Nimari Burnett to avoid a devastating upset. Fans might feel stressed or even frustrated by how close these wins have been, but Michigan would gladly take three more of these narrow escapes to close out the regular season.
That is because it is hard to imagine much tougher of a closing stretch. A rematch at the Breslin Center looms, but Michigan must first navigate its final three home games. The second of these is on Sunday afternoon against the conference’s whiniest team: the Illinois Fighting Illini . While the animosity seems one-sided between these programs, credit to Illinois for turning that hatred into success. Time for Dusty May eradicate this nuisance.
Illinois Fighting Illini (18-11) at No. 15 Michigan Wolverines (22-6, 14-3)
Date & Time: Sunday, Mar. 2, 3:45 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: CBS
No one expected Illinois to be sitting with eight conference losses at this point in the season or heading into March projected as a No. 8 seed. However, losses to teams like Northwestern, USC, Nebraska, and Rutgers have added up, and despite a top-25 KenPom ranking, the results have not been great. The Illini have dropped three of their past four games, and while those were against top-tier competition, something about this team just feels off.
Still, Illinois’ recent struggles may not matter on Sunday. The Illini have beaten Michigan eight straight times, meaning May has the chance to do something his predecessor could not: beat Illinois. There somehow is lingering bitterness over the silly incident from the covid season, but admittedly the Wolverines could benefit from leaning into the intensity this matchup seems to bring.
One Big Question: Why does Illinois keep losing?
With a top-20 offense and a top-40 defense, and both units ranking in the top six in Big Ten play, Illinois is far from a mediocre team. Kasparas Jakucionis remains a significant threat, and the Illini’s bigs are dominant on the boards (good luck on the defensive glass, Michigan) and stout in the paint on defense. Yet, a conference record near .500 — and plenty of not-so-close losses — indicates something is going on here.
One major issue for Illinois has been terrible outside shooting. The end of the Michigan State game was just one example, but Michigan will be feeling confident about its ability to force some scoring droughts, especially after three solid defensive halves this week (ignore the first 20 minutes against Rutgers). Illinois’ defense has also regressed this year, with trouble defending the pick-and-roll and limited frontcourt depth. There will be open jumpers to take, but May would likely prefer to attack the rim and play through the paint.
One Thing to Watch: Chaos
This game is set up to be frantic right from the jump. Both teams play fast, neither shoots well from three but still takes a ton of them, and neither defense forces many turnovers. The most obvious strategy for both teams is to attack in transition, as each defense performs better in the half-court and ranks in the top three in Big Ten play against two-point shooting. Illinois surely took note of how Michigan State capitalized on turnovers and misses, and that risk remains high on Sunday.
Is Michigan structured to exploit this hecticness? It is difficult to say with confidence. However, if this turns into a back-and-forth game with both teams showcasing flaws and the score remaining close late, it is hard to bet against the Wolverines. That means Michigan must avoid turning the ball over excessively and allowing Illinois to build a big lead thanks to dominance in transition. This matchup has been a challenge for Michigan recently, but Illinois comes into this one as vulnerable as ever.