With the transfer portal running rampant, offseason projections were nearly impossible to make. Now a month into the season, we took a look at what KenPom and Torvik think about Michigan and the Big Ten basketball season so far:
The transfer portal is all the rage in the world of college athletics these days. While a positive for most programs and players themselves, one byproduct of the portal is the difficulty it adds to offseason projections. Especially in basketball, it is nearly impossible to predict with any sort of accuracy what a team will look like when they bring in a brand new starting five. Some programs, like Michigan, have flourished. Others have had quite the opposite experience.
Now that we have over a month of game action under our belts, we thought it would be a good idea to explore what KenPom and Torvik think of each Big Ten team so far this season and how they have them stacked up.
Tier 1: Purdue (KenPom: 12, Torvik: 16), UCLA (14/14), Illinois (17/10), Maryland (19/15), Oregon (20/26), Michigan (21/22), Michigan St. (22/20)
Much to no one’s surprise, the top of the conference is a jumbled mess according to both KenPom and Torvik. Neither site has the Big Ten with a team in the top ten nationally, but both have seven teams in the 10-25 range. Michigan’s inclusion in the top tier may be a bit of a surprise, but the Wolverines are capable of playing with just about anyone when they don’t turn the ball over.
In last week’s AP Poll, the Big Ten was only represented by No. 8 Purdue, No. 11 Wisconsin, and No. 19 Illinois. Expect for that to change rapidly as UCLA, Maryland, Oregon, Michigan, and Michigan St. continue to make noise.
Tier 2: Ohio St. (29/32), Penn St. (33/38), Wisconsin (37/40), Indiana (44/39), Iowa (46/44)
Michigan picked up a valuable win at the Kohl Center over then No. 11 Wisconsin. However, both KenPom and Torvik think the Badgers may have been overrated as they have Wisconsin solidly out of the top 25 altogether. Wisconsin has a lethal offense but just the 88th ranked defense in the country per KenPom. Likewise, Michigan’s home win against Iowa was a quality win, but Iowa is still trying to figure things out.
Tier 3: Northwestern (59/50), Nebraska (61/51), Rutgers (74/58)
Rutgers is the big surprise here as they were expected to contend for the conference crown this season with standout freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. Both have been okay so far but have gotten no help from their supporting cast. Nebraska and Northwestern were both expected to go through rebuilding years and that appears to be the case so far.
Tier 4: USC (93/85), Washington (104/107), Minnesota (111/112)
On both sites there’s a large gap between tier three and tier four in the Big Ten. USC and Washington have both been wildly disappointing so far this season. KenPom goes so far as to have them both ranked below the likes of Loyola Chicago, UC San Diego, and Santa Clara. It’s going to be a rough transition.
KenPom has some cool features that I’d recommend checking out. The site lists a conference ranking by Net Rating of the team expected to go .500 in conference play (i.e. a way to power rank conferences by using the median team). It has the Big Ten second only to the SEC so far this year with the Big 12 and Big East close on their heals.
Additionally, the site lists a top five players in the conference which currently contains (in order) Trey Kaufman-Renn of Purdue, Derik Queen of Maryland, John Tonje of Wisconsin, Nate Bittle of Oregon, and Braden Smith of Purdue. In my opinion, the eye test solidly backs up those rankings.
Offensively, the best teams in the conference so far have been Purdue (No. 8 in ORtg), Wisconsin (No. 19), Oregon (No. 20), and Ohio St. (No. 22). Defensively, KenPom lists UCLA (No. 4 in DRtg), Michigan (No. 10), Maryland (No. 13), and Illinois (No. 17) in order of strength.
In totality, it’s still very early in the college basketball season. However, we’re starting to see some teams fall to the back of the pack (USC, Washington, Minnesota, etc.) while a clump of teams are stuck up at the top with no clear front-runner. This should lead to some exciting basketball this winter!