Michigan Hockey is fighting for its NCAA Tournament lives this weekend. It takes on No. 2 Michigan State in East Lansing on Friday, and in Detroit for the ‘Duel in the D’ on Saturday. Here is our series preview:
Groundhog Day may be behind us, but it feels like the Michigan Wolverines are stuck in a time loop. For the second straight year, the Wolverines find themselves firmly on the bubble late in the season.
Michigan (15-11-2) is ranked No. 13 in the country and No. 14 in the Pairwise rankings, which determine the NCAA Tournament at-large berths. Usually, the cut-off line is around No. 12 in the Pairwise, so the Wolverines have some work to do. Fortunately, the final six games provide ample opportunities to reach the postseason. Unfortunately, these opportunities are against three top-10 opponents.
First up, a rematch with No. 2 Michigan State (21-4-3).
Head coach Adam Nightingale has performed nothing short of a miracle in East Lansing since taking over in 2022. In just his second season, Nightingale led his team to its first Big Ten regular season and tournament titles in program history. After making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012, Nightingale’s team is in search of more than just a participation trophy this season.
A likely one-seed again, Michigan State is one of the most complete teams in college hockey. Forward Isaac Howard (21G, 19A) leads the nation with 1.41 points per game. The Wolverines were able to neutralize Howard in their OT victory earlier this season, but his two assists to Charlie Stramel (9G, 15A) helped propel the Spartans to victory in the second game.
Although Michigan State lost captain Red Savage for the season, the Spartans are the deepest team in the country. Out of their entire roster to appear in 10 or more games this season, sophomore forward Griffin Jurecki (1A) is the only player to post a negative plus/minus (-3).
Speaking of plus/minus, graduate senior Nicklas Andrews (2G, 11A) leads the team with an absurd +22. The Colorado College transfer also leads the team with 39 blocked shots and brings a veteran leadership to the blue line that makes him the most valuable Spartan on the ice this weekend. At least the most valuable in terms of skaters.
In net, sophomore Trey Augustine (.926 SV%) remains one of the best in the country. The two-time World Juniors gold medalist stopped 63-of-67 shots (.940 SV%) the first time these two teams met and erased several Grade-A chances in Michigan State’s Saturday night victory.
Michigan has already proved the Spartans are not invincible, however, with their fate hanging in the balance, the Wolverines will have to play their best hockey this weekend to capture at least three invaluable points.
Up front, T.J. Hughes (12G, 19A) has been carrying the weight of Michigan’s offense on his back. Hughes is riding an 11-game points streak and has proven effective on both the power play — which has exploded post-winter break converting at a 55 percent clip — and 5-on-5. The first time these two teams played, the Wolverines scored four goals across two games, and Hughes scored two of them and assisted on the third. If Michigan is to get the best of the Spartans, it starts with Hughes littering his name across the box score.
On the blue line, the Wolverines are ice cold. Michigan has allowed three or more goals in five straight games. Interestingly enough, the last time Michigan allowed less than three goals was in their 3-2 OT victory over Michigan State. Luckily, Michigan may have stumbled into a solution in converted freshman defenseman Will Felicio (2G, 9A).
Felicio — who was recruited as a forward but switched positions due to depth issues in the middle of the season — has scored 11 points in 18 games and leads the team with a +11 on the year. Moreover, Felicio is the only defenseman on the team with a plus/minus above zero.
Between the pipes, the positional battle continues. One week, Logan Stein (.893 SV%) looks like the guy, and then the next, he is being yanked for Cameron Korpi (.906 SV%). My predictions for the starting goalie have been as consistent as Michigan’s defensemen, but inspired by Felicio to turn it around, I think we’ll see Korpi get the start in both games this weekend.
Keys to the Game
Please, for the love of all that is sacred, stop committing penalties. It sounds reductive and simple, but if the Wolverines stay out of the sin bin, they can beat anybody. Michigan is the seventh-most penalized team in the country and has directly lost a handful of games — last Friday at Penn State, for example — by taking untimely and unnecessary penalties. When Michigan lost to the Spartans earlier this year, three of Sparty’s four goals came with a man advantage. As long as the Wolverines do not beat themselves, they will have a chance to strengthen their NCAA Tournament resume and escape this Punxsutawney purgatory as a bubble team.
Game 1
When: Friday, Feb. 7, 7 p.m. ET
Where: Munn Ice Arena, East Lansing, MI
How to watch: BIG+
Game 2 (Duel in the D)
When: Saturday, Feb. 8, 8 p.m. ET
Where: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
How to watch: Big Ten Network