Here’s everything you need to know about UC San Diego, Michigan’s Round of 64 opponent

Your Michigan Wolverines are a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Here’s everything you need to know about 12-seed UC San Diego:

The Michigan Wolverines just picked up three more Quad 1 wins over a three-day span to win the 2025 Big Ten Tournament , with Dusty May making history as the first first-year Big Ten coach to win the conference tournament.

And for their efforts, the Wolverines were rewarded with…a 5-seed. Not only do most bracketologists think Michigan is under-seeded, the Wolverines also have to travel to Denver, Colorado to play in altitude on three days rest and face a UC San Diego team ranked just 11 spots behind it in KenPom (36th). Buy your coffee now, Michigan fans, as that game tips off at approximately 10 p.m. on TBS on Thursday, March 20.

It’s not an advantageous draw on paper, to say the least, and the betting oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook believe the same thing with them having Michigan only be a 2.5-point favorite. Many analysts believe UC San Diego is the best 12-seed the tournament has seen in a while. But then again, the Wolverines are a tough cover with two 7-footers, and they have a knack for winning close games and boast the fourth-most Quad 1 wins in the country (12).

Here’s everything you need to know about UC San Diego.

12-seed UC San Diego — Big West Champs

UC San Diego became eligible to participate in March Madness in 2025 following a four-year transition period from DII to DI. The Tritons enter the tournament with a 30-4 record, punching their ticket into the Big Dance thanks to winning the Big West Tournament after earning sole possession of the conference’s regular season title.

Looking at games against top-100 teams in KenPom, UC San Diego:

-Lost to San Diego State by five points on Nov. 6 (SDSU is a play-in team).

-Beat Utah State by two points on Dec. 17 (10 seed in Midwest region).

-Split regular season series with UC Irvine, with an eight-point loss on Jan. 17 and an 18-point win on Feb. 8. In the Big West final, UC San Diego beat UC Irvine again (75-61). UC Irvine is a 1-seed in the NIT.

So while the Tritons have 30 wins, they don’t have many wins over quality opponents. UC San Diego only played three Quad 1 games this season, posting a 2-1 record in those games. By comparison, Michigan was 12-7 in Quad 1 games.

To be fair to UC San Diego, you can only play the opponents in front of you, and it did dominate in the games it was supposed to. But to say the Tritons are big-game tested would be a lie.

Key stats on KenPom

-57th in adjusted offense efficiency, 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency

-The Tritons shoot 56.1 percent from two (31st) and hold opponents to 46.2 percent on such shots (20th).

-The Tritons are seventh in turnover percentage on offense (13.4 percent) and second on defense (23.2), meaning they force a lot of turnovers while also taking care of the ball themselves. That’s a bad sign for a Michigan team that has led the Big Ten in turnovers per game (14.1) and turn the ball over at higher rate than all but 35 teams in all of college basketball.

-In conjunction with the stat above, the Tritons are fourth in the country in turnover percentage on offense and defense, so they force a lot of steals while staying fundamentally sound on offense.

-Offensive rebounding is not a strength for the Tritons (25.6 percent off. rebounding percentage, 307th in country), whose tallest player in their rotation is 6-foot-8.

Key Players

Get ready to hear Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones’ name a lot this week. The 6-foot-6 guard is UC San Diego’s leading scorer (19.5 points per game), transferring to UC San Diego after two seasons at Hawai’i Hilo.

Tait-Jones averages eight fouls drawn per 40 minutes, the third-highest mark in the sport. Looking at the extensive highlights posted to his YouTube channel, Tait-Jones does a lot of damage in the lane with crafty finishes. He’s an old-school scorer who uses his pivot foot to gain separation and isn’t afraid to rise up and grab an offensive rebound with the big.

He’s not afraid to back an opponent down from deep mid-range into the lane, and if he can’t finish it himself, he’s got excellent court vision and can find shooters spotted up around him. He’s not a good three-point shooter (31 percent on 1.4 attempts per game) but his game is heading to the basket with a full head of steam and drawing fouls.

The next two leading scorers for the Tritons are much better three-point shooters, with Tyler McGhie (16.4 points per game, 38.6 percent) and Hayden Gray (11.2 ppg, 42.8 percent) often being the beneficiaries of kick-outs from Tait-Jones. Gray also averages the most steals in the country (3.2).

The big that will likely be tasked with slowing down Area 50-1 is 6-foot-8 Nordin Kapic, an Austria native averaging 10.6 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. He can put the ball on the floor and create for himself. Kapic also has active hands on defense and plays well in transition.

Prediction

This is going to be a very popular 12-5 upset pick, but I do like Michigan to win and cover 3.5 points .

Yes, this is a tough Round of 64 draw, but I like Rubin Jones — Michigan’s best on-ball defender — to slow down Tait-Jones and limit him. While the Tritons force a lot of turnovers, I think Michigan has the size advantage to make up for that — I’m not sure how UC San Diego is going to guard the Area 50-1 pick-and-roll. Plus, I love the way Tre Donaldson is playing right now, and he provides Michigan with the swagger it needs on both ends.

If Michigan knocks down threes at a reliable clip and takes care of the ball — with the latter being a big “if” considering how this season has gone — I like the Wolverines to move on to the Round of 32.

Score Prediction: Michigan 69, UC San Diego 63