The hardest part of writing about college basketball in November is determining what’s real and what’s statistical noise. The reality is that we’re all just guessing until sometime after Thanksgiving.
Every program feels great about the green boxes on its KenPom profile and is confident that the red ones will work their way out of the system. However, by the time the calendar rolls into December, those boxes probably will not change as much as coaches hope.
It’s not Thanksgiving yet, but Michigan’s third win of the season, 94-67 over Miami (OH), matched the early-season script.
It was another dazzling offensive display marred by first-half turnovers at an almost unfathomable degree. In a game where the Wolverines seemed to make every shot they took and rebound the ones they missed, they gave the ball away once every three times down the floor in the first half.
In other words, it was the same game they’ve played all season. Michigan turned the ball over on 24.7% of its possessions for the game, bringing its season turnover rate to 24.6%.
There are plenty of reasons to think that turnovers will improve this season—a new system, new players, and new roles—but we are nearing the point where turnovers are a reality rather than something that can be fixed with a magic wand.
The good news? The rest of the product is quite impressive. The Wolverines are ranked 5th nationally in eFG% and 21st in offensive rebounding rate and managed to improve on both numbers today, shooting 68% on twos and 48% on threes while hauling down 46% of their misses.
It feels like Michigan is a turnover fix away from having one of the best offenses in the country. It’s also hard to have watched the last two first halves that this team played and expected a quick fix.
Dusty May Promo!
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