Michigan Hockey has been hanging around the bubble all season. Here’s a look at the Wolverines’ NCAA Tournament hopes going into the home stretch of the season:
The No. 12 Michigan Wolverines (17-12-3) have a bye before wrapping up the season with a pivotal series in Columbus next week. Those two games and the Big Ten Tournament are the last opportunities for head coach Brandon Naurato to get his team into the NCAA Tournament.
So, how do their odds look as of today?
Michigan is ranked 12th on PairWise , which is essentially the holy grail of hockey rankings. While the standard rankings still hold weight, PairWise ultimately decides the draw.
Since the NCAA Tournament carries 16 teams, the Wolverines are a good bet to receive an at-large bid. However, with three of those spots likely going to conference winners who would not have made it otherwise, there is a little more pressure on bubble teams like Michigan.
Conferences like the AHA, CCHA and ECAC are mostly on the outside looking, in according to PairWise. Still, as is the case every year, some more deserving teams will falter without the automatic qualifier.
Now, what do the Wolverines need to do to secure their berth?
As critical as I have been of Michigan’s inconsistency (seven straight series splits until a recent sweep of Minnesota), a split should be enough. Even if it gets swept by the Buckeyes, there will be a chance for redemption in the Big Ten Tournament. Considering these are top-10 road battles against a team that has not beaten Michigan indoors, the resumé won’t take too much of a hit either way.
The Wolverines are all but locked into the four-seed in the conference and will face either Penn State or Wisconsin in the quarterfinals. The opening best-of-three series would be played at Yost Ice Arena — a major home advantage with the Children of Yost behind them.
Assuming they can advance to the semifinals, a top-four finish in the most competitive conference — along with plenty of quality wins — bodes well for an NCAA Tournament appearance.
There is still a ton of hockey to be played and with such a limited amount of spots, nothing is guaranteed to non-conference winners. Michigan could make life easier on itself and just win the Big Ten, but with No. 1 Michigan State, No. 5 Minnesota and No. 7 Ohio State in the way, that seems a little unlikely.
But who knows? Last year, Naurato guided his team from the four-spot into overtime of the championship game. The Wolverines have fallen in each of the last three Frozen Four semifinal games and Naurato is surely desperate to return and claim the throne.
If Michigan wants to even have a shot of doing so, it will need a clean finish to the regular season. And that begins at Ohio State next Thursday.