Michigan has a tall task ahead, but there is a path to victory. Here are five reasons why the Wolverines will take down the Alabama Crimson Tide in the ReliaQuest Bowl:
The College Football Playoff Semifinal on Jan. 1 was an instant classic. In an overtime game in the Rose Bowl , Michigan won on a goal-line stop to advance to the National Championship. You’ve probably watched the highlights regularly since that game (as we all have).
There’s not as much on the line this time in the ReliaQuest Bowl, but here are five reasons why the Wolverines will win the game.
The defense will still be solid even without guys like Mason Graham
We’re still waiting on some bowl game decisions from starters, but regardless of the opt-out situation, Michigan should still field a pretty decent defense. We’ve seen Wink Martindale improve over the last few games of the season, and it appears he’s starting to understand the team and the players he’s working with.
Defensively, you can see the improvement against ranked opponents as the season went on. Pro Football Focus backs that up, recording their worst defensive performances of the season against Texas and Oregon, but there was significant improvement against Indiana and Ohio State. Don’t be surprised if Michigan’s defense keeps this game close.
Michigan’s offense will be improved
Despite losses along the offensive line, there’s hope that the offense will improve without Kirk Campbell calling plays. Even with Davis Warren’s struggles at quarterback, new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey has shown time and again he knows how to put his players in positions to succeed. Even if you’re not starting a new quarterback, having someone who recognizes the weaknesses on a team should improve the offense, even if he only has a few weeks to prepare.
And in the event Lindsey is not the one calling plays in the bowl game, the Wolverines will still throw the kitchen sink at Alabama simply because it’s the final game of the season and there’s nothing to lose. Michigan embraced the underdog mentality at Ohio State last month, so there’s no reason this team can do enough offensively to win this game as well.
Truth be told, Alabama is not that good
Yes, Alabama’s offense is better than Michigan’s offense, but the Tide dropped games this year to Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and a Tennessee team that just got exposed in its game against Ohio State, a team Michigan beat. The only thing keeping Alabama relevant is its win over Georgia.
Looking at the overall records, it doesn’t seem like these teams should even be in the same category, but Alabama’s strength of schedule was the 22nd toughest in the country according to ESPN, and Michigan’s was the seventh toughest. Alabama might have a better record than Michigan, but I’m not convinced it is one of the toughest teams in the country. Pro Football Focus ranks the Tide’s offense at No. 23 in the country, and Michigan has faced several more dynamic offenses this season.
Michigan’s young players will meet the moment
This is the first bowl game for some of the players we expect to be stars at Michigan, including running back Jordan Marshall. Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings won’t play in this game, which will open up the competition for guys like Marshall and Ben Hall. We’ve already seen one great kick return from Marshall this year, and this game could provide him another opportunity to put up a big play.
Unlike other games where the pressure might get to a young guy, this bowl is an opportunity to play loose and show what they’ve got. Michigan’s guys should be hungry and eager to get on the field and play to the best of their abilities.
Michigan has Dominic Zvada
Saving the best reason for last — Michigan doesn’t need much to give Dominic Zvada a chance to put points on the board. If the Wolverines manage to force a short field from a turnover or get into Alabama territory through a successful offensive drive, they should be able to rely on Zvada’s leg for a field goal, even if it is a 50+ yarder.