Dusty May has revived Michigan in record time, but the Wolverines are not quite ready to compete for a national championship. Here are five reasons the Wolverines will fall short this season:
The turnaround of the Michigan Wolverines is nothing short of historic. While last year’s team would likely have missed the Big Ten Tournament had the new structure been in place, this squad has a legitimate shot at hanging a banner and has nearly a 50/50 chance (!!) at an outright conference title. No one expected such a bounce back, but fans now have their eyes set on even bigger prizes.
As much as I buy into some of that hope, I also feel obligated to pump the brakes a bit. Kellen Voss laid out some excellent thoughts on why this team could make a surprising run in March, so now it is my job to point out what could (and probably will) ultimately hold the Wolverines back in the NCAA Tournament, even if the regular season ends with a trophy.
Do I even need to say it?
For months, we convinced ourselves that the turnovers were a function of growing chemistry amongst a bunch of transfers and would resolve themselves in time. Unfortunately, they have not. Michigan’s 20.2-percent turnover rate (330th nationally) has dropped slightly to 19.3 percent in Big Ten play, but it is hard to forget the impact they had against Wake Forest and Arkansas or in West Lafayette.
Elite teams do not waste possessions this recklessly, and good opponents will capitalize on these mistakes. All it takes is one game with errant Danny Wolf passes or mindless Tre Donaldson giveaways to dig the Wolverines into too big of a hole to escape. This may be a boring talking point, but the stat is simply too mind-boggling to ignore. Hopefully, Dusty May will have a plan to address turnovers this offseason, as it is apparently too late to fix them this year.
Fool’s gold
While a 20-5 record and a steel-nerved ability to win close games should not be overlooked, it is important to remember that Michigan is outside the top-20 in both KenPom and Torvik. These close wins are nice, but the predictive metrics show that this is a good, not great team, and closer to the middle of the Big Ten than the top spot. Records matter, but they reflect the past, not the future; meanwhile, the analytics paint a more sobering picture of this group.
It is not just turnovers that highlight Michigan’s flaws. The team’s once elite interior shooting has dropped off since New Year’s, and three-point shooting has been inconsistent at best. Defensively, the Wolverines are adequate, but they force very few turnovers, and performances against Minnesota, Purdue, and Ohio State demonstrate that the floor can be pretty low on this side of the ball. This is definitely a top-25 squad, but the narrow wins imply that the margin for error is razor-thin.
Ride or die
It feels a bit strange to write this after the Rubin Jones-Roddy Gayle switch has looked beneficial for all parties and L.J. Cason just had his best performance in a while, but Michigan’s lack of depth is a major concern heading into March. Yes, teams often ride their stars in the Tournament, but with this roster’s limited options, May will have no choice but to do so. While it is fun to imagine someone like Gayle or Will Tschetter stepping up for a legendary performance, such efforts are far rarer than we remember.
What happens if Wolf or Vlad Goldin (or both) get into early foul trouble? What if Donaldson has another off night at the worst possible time? What if Michigan has a three-point effort like it did against Northwestern or Indiana and seemingly everyone is cold? May has proven that he can get the most out of this squad, but there are only so many options. I fear the stars will need to align for this team to make a deep run.
We’re not in Kansas the Midwest anymore
The Big Ten has a number of strong programs this year, and it looks like Michigan might end up at the very top of them. However, without any major non-conference wins (Xavier is outside the KenPom top-50) and losses to simply decent teams like Arkansas and Oklahoma (who are both struggling in SEC play), it is fair to question whether the Wolverines could truly take down a top seed or two in the Tournament. After all, we saw what happened in West Lafayette.
The wins at Wisconsin and over Purdue at home do count, as would any success over Michigan State. Still, Michigan’s resume points more to the fact that it can beat the teams it is supposed to, not consistently proving itself against the nation’s elite. Against teams from other conferences that might not be as vulnerable to the two-big offense, Michigan could struggle. Escaping with narrow wins in Big Ten play is one thing, but facing the nation’s giants is a completely different challenge.
The road ahead
Sometimes, everything plays out perfectly, as almost happened in 2018 when Michigan did not face a top-five seed until the very end. That team was crushed by Villanova, the first legitimate opponent it saw. A memorable run this March will probably require a similar setup, as the Wolverines are likely to claim a No. 3 seed at best and will face an uphill road to a title — and even just the Final Four.
The Wolverines could certainly pull off an upset or two, and perhaps the bracket will work out in their favor. However, they will not be heading into the Tournament with a red carpet rolled out for them. Michigan will have to beat teams in March that would be much tougher than its schedule to date, and given all the factors mentioned above, I am not confident it can do so, especially multiple times.
There is plenty to celebrate about this season, but objectively, there are still big questions to answer if there are going to be further achievements.