With less than three minutes in the first half, the Wolverines looked doomed, trailing and outplayed by Michigan State. But on the next drive, something clicked as the Michigan offense rallied to save the game and its season in ten crucial plays.
With just under three minutes remaining in the first half, things were looking grim for the Michigan Wolverines . Up to that point, the team from Ann Arbor had mustered 37 yards of total offense (compared to Michigan State ’s 153) and two first downs and were lucky to only be trailing by seven points.
Fans were emotionally tweeting and posting, “FIRE EVERYONE!” and more profane variations as the game’s desired outcome grew more elusive. It seemed like the fitting next step for a frustrating season – pathetically losing to little brother en route to missing a bowl game. However, three minutes later, Michigan’s entire season flipped.
Out of nowhere, on the next drive, the Wolverines marched 64 yards in 2:29 to cut the lead to one. The game should have been tied, but more on that later. Hope had returned, and being down by only one point after a disastrous first half felt like a monumental win. But the half wasn’t over.
On Michigan State’s subsequent possession, the Spartans got aggressive trying to steal back three points before the half. Following a successful first-down run by Nate Carter, quarterback Aidan Chiles took to the air. Chiles rolled out to his right looking downfield, but as he got greedy looking for a chunk play, he forgot about Josaiah Stewart chasing him down from behind.
Stewart caught the young quarterback seconds before he could release the ball and thunderously forced a fumble that was safely recovered by Kenneth Grant. You could see the wheels turning in Grant’s mind about a scoop-and-score opportunity, but then he remembered what happened against USC and safely fell on the ball. Helmet sticker for Grant. This defensive effort set up the Wolverines to kick a field goal and take a 9-7 lead into the half. Michigan would never trail again and secured its first three-game winning streak over the Spartans since the Bush administration.
In less than three minutes, the Wolverines won the game and saved their season. Now, this season can still be a disappointment, but not the historic disappointment that this loss could have spiraled into. Since 1967, the Michigan program has only endured four losing seasons: 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2020. With a loss to the Spartans, anything above .500 felt like a pipe dream.
No disrespect to Northwestern, but the floor now appears to be 6-6, a bowl game (which includes 15 invaluable bowl practices), a rivalry victory, and a win during the biggest recruiting weekend of the year. The ceiling for this season would include a win over either the No. 1 team in the country, the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers , and/ or a victory in the greatest rivalry in college football.
When looking back at Michigan’s offense in this game, most will remember offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell’s second-half creativity and his use of Alex Orji as a wild cat option to seal the game. But I want to focus on the offensive drive that saved the game and season for the Wolverines.
Let’s check the tape!
Third Down Conversion
11-Personnel Y-Stick vs. Cover 1 Double Rat
The first two plays of the drive were predictable (run, quick pass), yet exactly what this offense needed to set up a third and manageable. After a brief injury timeout to right tackle Andrew Gentry, the Michigan offense set up for the conversion.
Michigan State showed a Cover One, six-man pressure pre-snap, but dropped three rushers post-snap to defend against underneath routes. From a schematic perspective, this is a perfect defense and one that has stifled the Wolverines the last two weeks. However, seeing it a third time allowed the Wolverines to crack the code.
Michigan came out in a three-by-one look and designed this play to go to tight end Colston Loveland. Loveland is running a stick route – a West Coast offense foundational play – where he has the option to run five yards and either stick in a soft zone or run away from man coverage. Facing the latter, he chooses wisely, but behind him, chaos has ensued.
Quarterback Davis Warren sees a pressure look pre-snap and understands that a revolving door has just been subbed in at right tackle. Instead of waiting to see if pressure comes, Warren trusts his instincts and legs and bails from the pocket early. Getting to the perimeter, Warren continues the field. A defender is closing in on him, but Warren keeps his eyes downfield.
Slot receiver Semaj Morgan runs a fake corner route at 12 yards and appears to be settling into a come-back route (TV copy cuts off). Morgan immediately recognizes that his quarterback is scrambling so the young receiver works back six more yards, into Warren’s vision, to create a throwing window.
Although the window to Morgan is slightly across his body, Warren accurately makes the right decision by throwing to Morgan and keeping the chains moving. Building off of this passing momentum, Campbell elected to keep it in the air with a 15-yard play to Peyton O’Leary and a seven-yard gain from Loveland working an out route against a mismatched linebacker.
With the defense off-balance, Campbell returned to the run game with two Donovan Edwards carries which resulted in gains of five and four yards. With both runs being millimeters away from breaking free, Campbell went to Edwards again, this time, testing the edge.
Donovan Edwards 11-Yard Gain
11-Personnel Crack Toss vs. Over Cover 3
Unlike the NFL, the hash marks in college football are wider and create more opportunities for leverage exploitation near the boundaries. This play is a perfect example.
Michigan aligns with the strength of its formation into the short side of the field. Wide receiver C.J. Charleston (Michigan’s best blocking receiver) is the split-end with Loveland to his inside in the slot. Both players have cut (shortened) splits to increase leverage for their crack blocks.
At the snap, Edwards takes the toss and left tackle Myles Hinton pulls out to lead the way. Loveland cracks down on the defensive end for Hinton and Charleston takes out the nearest linebacker. This is where the play gets special.
Hinton is responsible for the most dangerous man leaving Edwards one-on-one with the other. However, Hinton goes super Saiyan and lays out to take out BOTH defenders, springing Edwards for an 11-yard gain. If center Greg Crippen had not whiffed on linebacker Cal Halladay on the backside, Edwards could have cut back and potentially scored.
On the next play, Campbell stuck with Edwards’s hot hand, but he was snuffed out after a one-yard gain. With time winding down in the first half, Campbell drew up the perfect play to score Michigan’s first touchdown of the evening.
Colston Loveland’s First Touchdown
12-Personnel Corner Route vs. Bear Bust
Michigan State subs in an extra defensive tackle, fully expecting a run play after the Wolverines bring in All-Universe blocker Max Bredeson. Along with Loveland attached to the near-side line of scrimmage and the receiver duo of O’Leary and Charleston, this is run-play personnel nine times out of ten. Kirk Campbell knows this tendency, too, and uses this play as that exception.
Pre-snap, Charleston comes in motion for what appears to be window dressing, however, this motion is key to the success of this play. Right before the snap, Michigan State defenders communicate that the motion changes responsibilities and now the near-side corner is responsible for Loveland. More on that in a second.
At the snap, Bredeson comes across the formation to sell a bluff zone run for the quarterback. The defense bites so hard on Bredeson that if this ball was handed to Edwards he might score. Four defenders key on Bredeson coming across including the corner who now has coverage responsibility for Loveland.
By the time the corner realizes that Loveland is running a route and not blocking, he is already one yard behind and his jerk reaction causes him to slip. Loveland effortlessly runs a corner route and Warren delivers an easy strike for the touchdown.
The attention Bredeson is garnering in the run game could be a misdirection weapon Campbell and the Wolverines continue to use to create explosive plays.
Week 8 Superlatives
Two Is Better Than One Quarterback Award
The long-standing quarterback adage is that if you have two, you don’t have one. Unless you are the Michigan Wolverines where the sum of its quarterbacks’ parts makes one effective player.
Combined, Davis Warren and Alex Orji accounted for 187 total yards, a pair of touchdowns, and ZERO turnovers. For the first time all season, it felt like Campbell had a clear vision for each of his signal-callers and focused more on accentuating each player’s strengths instead of forcing one of them to carry the entire weight of the offense.
This approach created a more streamlined attack and kept both Warren and Orji inside of their comfort zone in a crucial game.
Bend, But Don’t Break Award
Michigan’s red zone defense has rightfully faced its share of criticism this year. From untimely coverage busts to simple misalignments, this unit has struggled to defend inside of the 20-yard line. Against the Spartans, this unit showed growth and grit.
Michigan limited its rival to only scoring points on two of four possessions in the red area, and even those did not come easily. The first score came on a fourth-and-one conversion and the second came on a third-and-long from the 20-yard line. Things to clean up on both, for sure, but the two stops helped win the game.
The first stop came after a 14-play, eight-minute drive that resulted in a missed field goal after reaching the Wolverines’ two-yard line. The final stop came on Michigan State’s final possession facing a fourth-and-five from the 16-yard line while protecting a one-touchdown lead.
Michigan’s unit tested the limits of its flexibility, but when it needed a stop to preserve a victory, the defense did not break.
Monstars Stole His Talent Award
Remember in Space Jam – the OG, not that CGI-filled mess of a remake – when the Monstars stole star players’ talent? Instantly, the players went from all-stars to talentless in hilarious fashion where even the most routine plays became impossible hurdles. Something similar has happened to Michigan’s punter.
Tommy Doman was a weapon for the Wolverines last season. If his numbers had qualified – Michigan did not punt often last season – Doman would have ranked in the top five in the Big Ten and been on the fringe of the top 25 nationally. A more specific example of his potency came against Maryland last year when he had a crucial punt that downed itself at the one-yard line and led to a safety.
This season, something has been off for Doman. Currently, his numbers rank him dead last in the Big Ten and the bottom 20 nationally among qualified punters. Furthering his decline has been his struggles as a holder for Michigan’s kicking operations. What happened? This precipitous decline would be like if J.J. McCarthy had turned into Steve Threet last year.
It is hard to explain why his decline has been so drastic, but it is more difficult to justify why Doman is playing moving forward when field position and kicking could be the difference between a historical upset and another frustrating defeat.