There are roughly 10 regular season games remaining for each Big Ten basketball team. Which team has the toughest remaining schedule? What about the easiest? We dug in to find out:
March Madness will be here before you know it.
Until then, there’s quite a bit to be sorted out, especially in the Big Ten. Michigan State currently sits atop the conference, though the Spartans had just the 14th-toughest strength of schedule (SOS) in the conference. Will their schedule get tougher as the calendar turns to February? Will other teams in the conference with front-loaded schedules start to rise to the top with easier schedules down the stretch?
KenPom only lists SOS looking backwards, so let’s start by seeing which teams have played what type of schedule:
- Purdue (No. 3 nationally)
- Ohio State (10)
- Oregon (11)
- Illinois (12)
- Rutgers (16)
- Washington (23)
- Michigan (24)
- Wisconsin (25)
- Northwestern (27)
- Indiana (30)
- Nebraska (33)
- UCLA (34)
- Minnesota (40)
- Michigan State (47)
- USC (48)
- Iowa (54)
- Penn State (70)
- Maryland (80)
My initial impression is Purdue has been very impressive. To be 16-5 (8-2) with the third-toughest SOS is very impressive. The Boilermakers may not be a No. 1 seed as they have been in recent memory, but this is a team you can’t overlook.
The other outlier appears to be the Spartans. While an 18-2 (9-0) record is incredibly impressive, they’ve done so with one of the easiest SOS in the conference. Life is bound to get a little tougher for the Spartans.
Speaking of that, to look forward-facing to the remaining schedules, I flipped over to ESPN’s BPI. Here’s how their algorithm has the Big Ten teams’ remaining SOS ranked:
- Michigan State (No. 10 nationally)
- Indiana (11)
- Illinois (17)
- Michigan (21)
- Iowa (24)
- Rutgers (29)
- Ohio State (30)
- Nebraska (32)
- Purdue (33)
- Wisconsin (34)
- UCLA (36)
- USC (37)
- Minnesota (38)
- Maryland (39)
- Washington (44)
- Oregon (45)
- Northwestern (47)
- Penn State (52)
Turns out life will get much tougher for the Spartans. As of the rankings this week, Michigan State plays ranked opponents in four of its last 11 matchups, and that doesn’t include unranked Michigan twice.
Both Mitten State Big Ten teams have back-loaded schedules by these metrics, as Michigan’s SOS is no joke either. The Wolverines have five matchups remaining with ranked opponents out of their remaining 11 games. Fortunately, all but one are at home.
Michigan and Michigan State seem the most likely to drop a few spots in the standings due to this tough final stretch, so which teams could be the beneficiaries? Oregon, Maryland and UCLA seem like prime candidates.
The Ducks currently sit eighth in the conference standings, but their remaining SOS is 45th nationally with just two ranked matchups remaining (at Michigan State, at Wisconsin). Outside of that, they play predominantly conference bottom-feeders.
The same can be said about the Terrapins, who have just one game left against ranked competition in a Feb. 26 home game against Michigan State. Look for Maryland to potentially be a late riser in bracketology projections heading into March.
The true winner of this exercise has to be the Purdue Boilermakers . Matt Painter’s squad is beloved by KenPom (No. 7 nationally, No. 1 in the Big Ten), has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, has only lost five games, and has a very manageable schedule to close out the regular season. I fully expect Purdue to contend for the conference crown until the final whistle of the regular season.