Michigan Basketball’s season-over-season improvement has been meteoric under first-year head coach Dusty May. Today, we look at other historical turnarounds in college basketball history:
Following a brutal 8-24 (3-17) 2023-24 season under Juwan Howard in which the Michigan Wolverines finished dead last in the Big Ten, their meteoric rise back to the top of the conference has been nothing short of historic. Dusty May and company have not only rebuilt the roster, but found a way to win 20+ games in May’s first year in Ann Arbor.
Has this quick of a turnaround ever happened at Michigan? Has it happened anywhere? While the NIL/transfer portal era allows for instant rebuilds, what does the historical precedent look like when it comes to changing a program overnight?
With three games remaining, let’s use an estimate of 24 wins for the Wolverines (while obviously understanding that number could change). Twenty-four wins would be a 16-win improvement over 2023-2024, and a 13-win improvement in the conference.
Such a big improvement in wins has never happened in Michigan basketball history. The closest comparisons are in different eras. In the 1990-91 season, Michigan went 14-15 (7-11) in Steve Fisher’s second full season as the head coach. The Wolverines then went 25-9 (11-7) in the 1991-92 season thanks to the Fab Five.
The next double-digit win increase season-over-season didn’t come until John Beilein’s second year. In his first season, Beilein went 10-22 (5-13) in 2007-08. One season later, Beilein brought the team up to 21-14 (9-9). While bringing the overall win total up by 11, the Wolverines still weren’t anywhere near the top of the Big Ten.
Simply put, the Fab Five is the closest comparison to what we’ve seen from this year’s team, but even that feels like an apples-to-oranges type comparison since this team isn’t made entirely of freshmen.
Looking nationally, improving win totals by 16+ is surprisingly more common than you’d think. However, a majority of these increases have been my mid-majors who caught fire for a year. Amongst power conference schools, here are some notable examples of gargantuan year-over-year improvements:
1987-88 Arizona Wildcats: 17-win improvement: 18-12 to 35-3
Lute Olson’s Wildcats had already been an NCAA Tournament team in 1986-87, but exploded in 1987-88 before being upset in the Final Four. They were led by Pac-10 Player of the Year Sean Elliott and had role players in Tom Tolbert and Steve Kerr, who would eventually be drafted to the NBA. The 1987-88 season kicked off a 71-game win streak at home for Arizona.
1998-99 Ohio State Buckeyes: Up from 19-win improvement: 8-22 to 27-9
Under Jim O’Brien, the Buckeyes had an atrocious first year with the new coach. Not only did they win just eight games, but they went 1-15 in Big Ten play. Everything changed in 1998-99, as they won 27 games and went to the Final Four as a No. 4 seed.
1999-2000 Iowa State Cyclones: 17-win improvement: 15-15 to 32-5
The 1998-99 season was Larry Eustachy’s first with the Cyclones. They went a respectable .500 after having been 12-18 the year prior. In Eustachy’s second year, he took Iowa State to the Elite Eight as a No. 2 seed before falling to Michigan State. The Big 12-winning Iowa State team was led by Michael Nurse, Marcus Fizer, and Jamaal Tinsley. Fizer would go on to win Big 12 Player of the Year that season, with Tinsley taking home the award in 2000-01.
2014-15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 17-win improvement: 15-17 to 32-6
Notre Dame’s rapid improvement came in its second year in the ACC. Having competed in the Big East from 1995-2013, the adjustment to the ACC in the 2013-14 was abrupt, as the Irish finished below .500 on the season for the first time since 1999. However, Mike Brey and his staff figured it out in 2014-15. Notre Dame was ranked for the majority of the season and earned a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament before falling to Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
The overall takeaway here is there isn’t a great historical comparison to what Michigan has done this season. In Michigan history, only the Fab Five came close to such a big turnaround. Nationally, several teams have had larger turnarounds, but they have either been mid-majors, coaches in the second year of their tenure, or teams that had recently changed conferences. I didn’t come across one example of a coach having such an about-face in the first year of their tenure.
Let us know in the comments below if any historical comparisons jump out to you.