Evaluating if starting Rubin Jones over Roddy Gayle Jr. is the best move for Michigan Basketball

Through 25 games, Michigan basketball has utilized just two different starting lineups. Was benching Roddy Gayle Jr. in favor a Rubin Jones the right move for Dusty May and the Michigan Wolverines? We take a look at the numbers:

The Michigan Wolverines have been remarkably healthy. Knock on wood, of course, but only two different starting lineups have been used by the Wolverines all season. Tre Donaldson, Nimari Burnett, Danny Wolf, and Vlad Goldin have started every game, while Roddy Gayle Jr. has started all but four. He missed the UCLA game with an injury before returning to the starting lineup upon his return.

However, Rubin Jones started over Gayle at Indiana, and he also started this past week against Purdue and Ohio State.

Did Dusty May make the right choice? Is this the best move for Michigan?

On the surface, the easy answer is “yes,” as Michigan has won two huge games with Jones in the starting lineup. However it’s important to note the Wolverines had been winning consistently with Gayle in the starting lineup as well. We need to dig deeper to find out the true results.

Per May himself, Gayle’s benching was not just to punish him for subpar play — it was to inject some offense into the bench unit and some additional defense into the starting unit.

The early results were rough. Gayle had his worst performance of the season at Indiana with two points and one rebound in 25 minutes. According to KenPom, he had an offensive rating of 59, his lowest of the season. However, things turned around from there. Against Purdue, he scored 14 points and earned an offensive rating of 106. He backed that up with an offensive rating of 112 by scoring nine points against his former school, Ohio State.

For context, Gayle’s season-long offensive rating was 104 and 105 in his two seasons at Ohio State. He is at 106 so far this season.

As for Jones, his insertion into the starting lineup followed a similar pattern to Gayle’s. Early returns were rough, as the Indiana game was below average. However, against both Purdue and Ohio State, Jones had his third- and fourth-best games of the season, respectively. Notably, his put-back dunk against the Boilermakers essentially sealed the game.

Jones’ usage has remained somewhat the same, but Gayle’s usage has exploded as a part of the second unit. It must have been tough for Gayle to come off the bench against his old team, but he rose to the occasion and played his role to perfection.

So, did May make the right decision to bench Gayle and insert Jones into the starting lineup? It appears the answer is “at least for now, yes.” Gayle’s offensive numbers have been better and has provided a scoring punch off the bench, while Jones has provided strong defense in the starting lineup. I would expect this trend to continue potentially through the end of the season.